The Italian Open is heating up as world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka prepares to face No. 8 Qinwen Zheng in a highly anticipated quarterfinal clash. Sabalenka has never lost a match against Zheng in the past, but this will be their first meeting on clay, a surface where Zheng, the 2024 Olympic gold medalist, has excelled. The Chinese ace is, however, wary of the aggressive style of the World No. 1. “Sabalenka is a pure offensive player. You must absorb a few of her powerful shots during her attacks,” she said, ahead of this encounter. Will Zheng be able to pose a challenge to the top-seeded Belarusian?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng: Preview

Sabalenka is dominating the 2025 season! She’s leading the WTA Tour with three titles from six finals, including two big WTA 1000 wins in Miami and Madrid. Sabalenka also made it to the Australian Open final, where she pushed Madison Keys to a thrilling three-set battle but came up just short. At the Italian Open, she cruised past Anastasia Potapova 6-2, 6-2, then battled back from a set down to beat Sofia Kenin 3-6, 6-3, 6-3. She followed that up with a tight 6-1, 7-6(8) win over Marta Kostyuk to reach her fourth WTA 1000 quarterfinal of the year.

On the other side, Qinwen Zheng has been steadily building momentum in 2025, winning 12 of her 19 matches. After a slow start, she’s hit her stride with three quarterfinal appearances in her last four tournaments, including back-to-back quarters at Indian Wells and Miami, where she fell to Iga Swiatek and Sabalenka, respectively. At the Italian Open, Zheng got a first-round bye and then impressed with straight-set wins over Olga Danilovic (6-1, 6-4), Magdalena Frech (6-3, 6-2), and a strong 7-5, 6-1 victory against a returning Bianca Andreescu to reach her fourth quarterfinal of the season.

Sabalenka vs Zheng: Head-to-Head

This upcoming clash is their seventh meeting, and Aryna Sabalenka holds a commanding 6-0 lead over Qinwen. Their most recent battle was at the Miami Open this year, where Sabalenka edged out Zheng 6-2, 7-5. They also faced off at the WTA Finals in November, with Sabalenka winning in straight sets during the group stage.

The only time Zheng showed real fight was on home soil at the 2024 Wuhan Open final, taking the second set before ultimately losing in three sets (6-3, 5-7, 6-3). Despite the crowd favoring Qinwen, Aryna stayed unfazed, saying, “I’m not really focusing on the crowd when they’re against me anymore. I don’t really hear them. I’m just focusing on myself and my team…”

This rivalry has seen some high-stakes moments, including four quarterfinal encounters (2023 US Open, 2024 US Open, 2025 Madrid Open) and two finals (2024 Australian Open and Wuhan Open). Sabalenka’s dominance is clear, especially on hard courts where all their previous matches have been played. However, this will be their first meeting on clay, adding a fresh twist to their dynamic. Sabalenka’s aggressive style and superior stats on second serve points and break points give her the edge, but Zheng’s resilience can never be underestimated.

Prediction: Sabalenka to win this match in three sets

Last year, in the Italian Open final, Sabalenka lost 2-6, 3-6 to Iga Swiatek, but she has dominated on clay this season. Boasting an overall win rate of 66.43% on this surface, with 96 wins and 48 losses, Sabalenka has reached ten clay finals in her career, winning Madrid thrice (2021, 2023, 2025) and making the Rome final in 2024. Her aggressive style fits clay well.

Zheng is no pushover either, with a solid 76.23 % win rate on clay (94-29). She clinched the 2024 Paris Olympic gold on clay and has two WTA 250 titles in Palermo (2023, 2024). Reaching the Rome quarterfinals in both 2023 and 2024, the Chinese has proven her clay-court credentials. However, this will be their first clay meeting; all six previous encounters were on hard courts, where Sabalenka led 6-0, including a recent 6-2, 7-5 win.

Given Sabalenka’s dominant record in the head-to-head, superior form this season, and her proven clay prowess, she’s the clear favorite in this encounter. Expect a high-intensity battle, but Sabalenka’s experience and firepower on clay should see her through, likely in three sets.