After edging past the Atlanta Dream 67-62, the Valkyries got a more decisive 64-55 victory in Game 5, capturing the 3-2 series lead. Now, they have the opportunity to actually close out the series in Atlanta’s backyard at State Farm. So when the two teams meet on Thursday, October 29 at 12:30 p.m. ET (9:30 a.m. PT) for Game 6, the Dream have to win if they want to keep their championship hopes alive. To do that, they have to find a way through a defense that’s stumped them in the last two games.

What the Atlanta Dream need to address

Following a closely contested Game 1, the Valkyries took an early 1-0 lead, winning  68-64. The Dream made adjustments. In the following two games, the Dream dominated the Valkyries, winning Game 2 79-65 and blowing out the best regular-season defense (99.3) in Game 3, winning 97-71.

Heading into Game 4 with a 2-1 lead, the Dream were confident in their grit and momentum.

“There is more work to be done, and we are going to do it,” Dream head coach Karl Smesko said after Game 3.

However, things didn’t pan out the way the Dream had hoped. After two uncharacteristic defensive displays from the Valkyries, head coach Natalie Nakase shifted the team’s defensive strategy.

In our Game 4 preview, we had said that Angel Reese had dictated Games 2 and 3. You can check that out here. Reese came into Game 4 having scored 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 7-for-12 field goals in the previous game. However, this time the Valkyries used physical ball-denial, double-teams, and forced her into uncomfortable scoring positions.

The result was Reese scoring 8 points, 9 rebounds, and 2-for-12 from the field.

“In this game, they were throwing two bodies at her, trying to make her a passer, which she turned over six times, or they were making her go left. She had a really tough Game 4, and I thought Golden State made some shrewd adjustments to how they defended her. And because of it, we have a 2-2 series,” said announcer Ryan Ruocco.

In Game 5, Reese once again struggled against more of the same, with Kiah Stokes once again finding success in guarding her. Instead of the double-doubles Reese had scored in the first three games, she ended up with 7 points, 15 rebounds, and went 2-for-8 on field goals.

So besides making adjustments that would let Reese open up more, the Dream also need to address their offensive lapses. In Game 3, they shot 49% of their field goals and 41% of their three-pointers. However, that dropped drastically in Game 4.

They shot 33% from the field and just 17% of their three-pointers in Game 4. Those numbers recovered slightly in Game 5, with the Dream shooting 39% from the field and knocking down 25% of their three-pointers, but that barely made a difference.

The Game 5 loss saw the Atlanta Dream score their lowest total all season at just 55. The third and final problem they need to solve if they want to survive is the turnovers, which is ironic considering that was something the Valkyries were struggling with.

How the Valkyries flipped the script on the Atlanta Dream

Game 4 became a high-stakes showdown where the Valkyries needed to win to avoid going into a two-game deficit. After giving up 36 turnovers across Games 2 and 3 that the Dream utilized to score 46 points, the Valkyries knew what they had to do.

“It’s about us being disciplined. We were loose with the ball, so again, very uncharacteristic of us. We’ve got to get back to who we are. They bring some pressure; we’ve got to stay together. We’ve got to not get flustered,” Hayes told the media after Game 2, and it finally clicked in Game 4.

As the Golden State Valkyries defense cleaned up their act, they forced the Atlanta Dream into making mistakes. The Dream committed 17 turnovers in Game 4 and 15 turnovers in Game 5. In contrast, the Valkyries committed just nine and seven, respectively.

Following Game 5, the Valkyries ‘ defensive dominance showed as they set a new WNBA Finals record for the most blocks in a Finals series with 37. Whether the Dream will be able to break through this defense in the pivotal Game 6 remains to be seen.

However, a Game 6 preview won’t be complete without addressing the scheduling situation.

Valkyries are confident the fans will show up

While the Atlanta Dream secured the nearly 17,000-capacity State Farm Arena, they couldn’t secure the primetime TV slot. With the Atlanta Hawks taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers later in the evening, the WNBA had to settle for a 9:30 a.m. PT / 12:30 p.m. ET tipoff time, and that’s inconvenient for the fans.

It’s especially important because if the Valkyries win, they won’t even get time to celebrate it at State Farm, and would have to celebrate at a practice arena. While the situation has caused quite the uproar in the WNBA community, the Valkyries are confident their fans will show up.

“Whatever they do, they come where the action is and this is the action,” Valkyries co-owner Peter Guber said about the afternoon tipoff.

Coach Natalie Nakase showed similar faith in the fanbase.

“I have no doubt that everyone who has been supporting us through this whole way — maybe we picked up fans within the Finals — everybody’s going to watch,” Nakase has said ahead of the game. “So our fans, I ain’t worried about it; our fans are going to show up, show out, we play for them because they show up, show out. They don’t ever miss a beat.”

So, with State Farm expected to sell out and the Valkyries confident their fans will tune in even as early as 9:30 a.m. The stage is set for a do-or-die in Atlanta.