The Indiana Fever already know they can beat the Las Vegas Aces. They did it twice during the regular season, including a 25-point blowout in Las Vegas. But Sunday’s playoff opener will be a very different test, with the Aces entering the postseason on a seven-game winning streak.
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Indiana finished the regular season 28-16 as the No. 6 seed, while Las Vegas went 31-13 to secure the No. 3 seed. The Fever also ended the regular season with back-to-back losses, including a 20-point defeat to the No. 1 Minnesota Lynx that left Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell combining for just 4-of-24 shooting.
That timing has created an unusual feeling around Indiana. Fever radio broadcaster John Nolan admitted as much while still backing the team ahead of the playoffs.
“I would say my confidence in the [Fever] hasn’t necessarily wavered. But I would acknowledge it is a weird feeling going into the playoffs, having had basically their two worst games of the season come over the last three games in this final week,” Nolan said on Podcast Sports. “It is just a weird thing. I mean, on the other side here, you got an Aces team that’s won seven in a row.”
The numbers explain why the timing stands out. Indiana averaged 96.0 points per game during the regular season, the highest mark in WNBA history, while also ranking first in offensive rating at 117.0. Against Washington on September 20, the Fever scored 77 points while shooting 36.6% from the field and 21.4% from three. Four days later, they managed just 66 points against Minnesota, shooting 34.2% overall and 15.6% from deep. The 66 points were a season low.
Clark endured the roughest night of the two. She finished the Minnesota game with two points on 1-of-12 shooting, including 0-of-7 from three, while Mitchell scored 10 points on 3-of-12 shooting. Together, the two guards went 4-of-24 from the field.
Still, Nolan does not believe the losses should erase what Indiana did over the rest of the season.
“I don’t put too much stock in either of the ugly losses that the Fever experienced, but it is just kind of an odd outlier thing to happen. The team that had an unprecedented offense all season long winds up with their two worst shooting games in the last week,” Nolan said.
There was some context to the Minnesota loss. The Lynx had already secured the No. 1 seed, while Indiana needed the result to settle its final playoff position. Minnesota jumped out to a 32-13 lead in the first quarter and held a 62-32 advantage at halftime. Indiana eventually pulled its starters as the deficit grew.
Stephanie White did not hide what went wrong.
“They came out aggressive. They punched us in the mouth. They’re the No. 1 seed for a reason, and they showed it tonight. They dictated on both ends of the floor and we didn’t really respond,” White said.
Clark offered a different way of looking at the loss.
“Everybody’s record is zero and zero. You’re going into the playoffs. Like, if you sit and sulk about what happened tonight — yeah, it sucks, but it is what it is… We didn’t make shots… Felt like we got really good looks and they just didn’t go down,” Clark said. “If you can’t get up for the playoffs, then you probably shouldn’t be on this team… Let’s go steal the first one.”
That reset will come against an Aces team that has been rolling. Las Vegas won its final four regular-season games by margins of 37, 21, 10 and 18 points and entered the playoffs with seven straight victories. A’ja Wilson also finished the regular season with 34 points against Phoenix.
Yet Indiana has plenty of reason to believe it can make this series uncomfortable. The Fever won the regular-season series 2-1, taking both games in Las Vegas, including an 84-68 victory on July 5 and a 109-75 blowout on July 12. The Aces’ lone win came in an 86-84 overtime game on August 6.
Now the two teams meet again with far more at stake. The first round is a best-of-three series, with Las Vegas hosting Game 1 and a potential Game 3. The Fever’s final two offensive performances may have created Nolan’s “weird feeling,” but Indiana gets its chance to answer it when the playoffs begin Sunday at Michelob ULTRA Arena.