The race for Rookie of the Year has never felt more alive. You’ve seen the signs already: the 2025 class has rewritten expectations by producing three All-Stars in Paige Bueckers, Sonia Citron, and Kiki Iriafen. Compare that to last year, when only two rookies (Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese) reached All-Star status. And the year before? Just one: Aliyah Boston.

Yet in both of those seasons, the outcome was never in doubt. Clark and Boston, each the No. 1 overall pick, each an All-Star, were crowned ROTY by unanimous decree (Clark had a near miss by 1 vote). This year, though, the script is more layered. The hints still point toward Paige Bueckers, whose brilliance has carried the crown’s weight all season.

But even if history repeats itself, it might not echo unanimously. Sonia Citron has stepped into the fire, and with every milestone, she sharpens her claim to the throne. So, let’s weigh their chances.

Who is the favourite?

Away from the story that the odds have to say, both Bueckers and Citron have been busy adding records to their names.

Right before the Sparks sent the Dallas Wings packing from playoff contention, Paige Bueckers delivered a masterpiece. Against the Los Angeles Sparks, she poured in 44 points, tying Cynthia Cooper’s rookie record and eclipsing Candace Parker’s 40-point effort in 2008 for the highest-scoring game by a rookie. She did it with an efficiency that soared north of 80%, and in that moment, the basketball world collectively crowned her the 2025 Rookie of the Year. No one voiced it louder than her head coach, Chris Koclanes: “It’s just clear,” he said. “She’s rookie of the year. There’s no questions.”

But just last night, under the bright lights against the Golden State Valkyries, Sonia Citron etched her own name into the rookie record books. With an 11-point performance, the Washington Mystics guard secured the WNBA rookie record for most 10+ point games: 35 in total. The achievement has reignited the Rookie of the Year race. It has placed her firmly beside the frontrunner, Bueckers.

Citron’s Notre Dame coach Niele Ivey once dubbed a queen. “To be the queen that she is… it’s almost like she’s been forced into the fire, and she’s handled herself so well. She’s basically doing whatever we need,” Ivey said. Now, Sonia Citron is playing like she’s got a crown to claim. Here’s the proof:

Paige Bueckers vs Sonia Citron: Stat Averages

So it’s clear that Paige Bueckers holds the edge in 4 of the five major statistical categories. But when the two rookies have gone head-to-head in the two Wings vs Mystics games so far (Paige sat the third one out due to injury), the scoreboard has had a very different story to tell.

Paige Bueckers vs Sonia Citron: Head to Head

Now here’s where Sonia Citron shines in a way that will be remembered for years. Head coach Sydney Johnson captured it best when he said: “It’s very rare when you have first-year players who are not only talented but check all the boxes in terms of… professionalism, coachability, and a desire to be great. When you see that, as a coach, you sprint to the gym every day to work with them.” Those words ring true not only for Citron’s steady brilliance in Washington, but also for Paige Bueckers, who has already taken the leadership reins in Dallas and produced a rookie season of historic highs.

So, whoever claims the ROTY crown, the WNBA is the real winner.