In the city where Steph Curry carved a dynasty, another battle for basketball supremacy is brewing. The Golden State Valkyries, still trying to find their rhythm, welcome the Las Vegas Aces, two-time defending champions, to the Chase Center. On paper, it’s the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup, but for A’ja Wilson and company, it’s also a statement game—a chance to continue their early-season surge. For the Valkyries, who’ve dropped four in a row, it’s about rewriting their narrative.
One team hunts history; the other, redemption.

Injury Report: Aces Down 2, Valkyries at Full Strength

The Golden State Valkyries have the luxury of continuity heading into this matchup—no injuries reported, a rare but welcome relief for a team still developing chemistry in the W. 

Meanwhile, Las Vegas is missing backup center Megan Gustafson, who’s out with a lower left leg injury from late April and isn’t expected back until July 3. Her absence has left a noticeable gap, especially on the boards. And then there’s Cheyenne Parker-Tyus—out on maternity leave and not due back until mid-August. She’d already been hampered by a left ankle injury last season, so her continued absence hits doubly hard.

Still, even with those setbacks, the Aces are finding their rhythm, having won four of their last six. The Valkyries? They’re still trying to stop the bleeding after four straight losses.

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Starting 5: Star Power vs. Stability

Golden State Valkyries Starting Lineup

• K. Thornton (#5)
• C. Zandalasini (#24)
• J. Salaun (#13)
• T. Fagbenle (#14)
• V. Burton (#22)

Las Vegas Aces Starting Lineup

• Kiah Stokes (#41)
• A’ja Wilson (#22)
• Chelsea Gray (#12)
• Jewell Loyd (#24)
• Jackie Young (#0)

The contrast couldn’t be sharper. The Aces’ starting five is packed with experience and All-Star pedigree—Wilson, Gray, Loyd, and Young can each take over a game. Meanwhile, Golden State is leaning on rising talent like Salaun and Burton, who’s quietly averaging 12.6 points per game on 37.7% shooting. Burton has been a bright spot for the expansion team, showing promise on both ends.

But the edge in synergy and firepower clearly belongs to Las Vegas.

Wilson in Full Command: Prediction and What’s at Stake

ESPN Analytics gives the Aces a commanding 69.7% chance to win. And A’ja Wilson, averaging 22.8 points on 47.1% shooting and 92.5% from the line, justifies every bit of that projection. She’s the centerpiece of an 82.2-point offense, a defensive menace, and the emotional core of a squad that knows how to close out games.

But percentages don’t account for desperation—or homecourt fire.

The Valkyries may be bruised after a 102-82 meltdown against Seattle, but that pain has a purpose. Veronica Burton, who’s quietly putting up 12.6 points per game and leading the team in effort plays, is due for a breakthrough night. Add in their edge in rebounds (35.0 to the Aces’ 33.3) and steals (9.1 to 8.7), and you have a team that doesn’t just disrupt—it survives long enough to counter.

Las Vegas is missing key depth with Gustafson and Parker-Tyus out, and that’s where Golden State might sneak in. With no injuries on their report, the Valkyries are finally working with a fully intact rotation. That continuity matters—especially when chemistry is your only weapon against firepower.

This may not be the popular pick, but the Commissioner’s Cup thrives on chaos—and so do hungry teams with nothing to lose.

Prediction: Valkyries 81, Aces 80.

The Aces may bring the storm, but this time, the Bay doesn’t break.