Eastern Conference Playoffs: Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty – What Do The Numbers Say?

The WNBA regular season is in its final stretch, and a couple of teams, like the Indiana Fever and LA Sparks, are scrapping for those final playoff spots. But the Atlanta Dream and New York Liberty are in a different conversation. For them, it’s about proving who really runs the East.

The Atlanta Dream have quietly built one of the most efficient offenses in the WNBA this season, posting a 107.4 offensive rating (2nd). That mark puts them ahead of the defending champion New York Liberty, who sit at 105.6 despite their star-studded lineup. The difference may seem small on paper, but across a full season, it reflects Atlanta’s consistency in generating high-quality looks and capitalizing on second-chance opportunities. In a potential postseason clash, that edge could prove decisive.

But when it comes to defense, the Atlanta Dream and New York Liberty are nearly identical. Atlanta holds a 99.3 defensive rating, with the Liberty close behind at 100.7—numbers that place both firmly among the league’s elite. Yet it’s Atlanta that has translated those numbers into momentum on the court. The Dream has shown that edge in recent matchups, clamping down on the Wings (100 points), Sun (93), and Sparks (86) to secure the No. 2 seed in the standings. Their ability to combine defensive toughness with offensive firepower has cemented their reputation as one of the WNBA’s toughest outs. The Liberty, by contrast, has looked shakier despite its strong metrics.

Their recent outings have hovered in the 80s offensively, followed by a surprising loss to the Valkyries (58-66). While their defensive foundation remains solid, inconsistency on the other end has raised concerns heading into the postseason. That dynamic sets up the defining question for the East: can the Atlanta Dream, riding a wave of momentum, topple the reigning champions and stake their claim as the conference’s true powerhouse heading into the playoffs?

The New York Liberty opened the season with a commanding nine-game winning streak, a reminder of why they entered 2025 as the reigning champions. For much of the year, they held firm at the top of the standings, but a late-season slide has dropped them to the No. 5 seed, carrying a 24-17 record and a 58.5% win rate. The Atlanta Dream, by contrast, has surged when it matters most—riding a 7-3 stretch over their last 10 games to climb into contention with a 65.9% winning percentage.

The Liberty have slipped to a 4-6 record over their last 10 outings, struggling to find consistency as their veteran presence wavered. Yet, numbers alone don’t tell the full story. If New York can string together three straight wins while Atlanta drops its remaining matchups against the Sparks and the Sun twice, the Liberty could close the gap and stand toe-to-toe with the Dream. Still, there’s an interesting, and for Atlanta, somewhat sobering twist that can upset their recent streak of wins.

At home, the Dream holds a 14-6 record compared with the Liberty’s 16-5, highlighting New York’s edge on its own court. Yet Atlanta’s recent surge has been hard to ignore. The Dream has gone 7-3 (last 10) at home and an impressive 8-2 (last 10) on the road, making them the default choice at the top of the Eastern Conference standings. With rebounding and defense as the Dream’s strength, Karl Smesko’s squad appears firmly ahead of New York. Even at their best, the Liberty can hope to match—but not surpass—the Dream in the regular season. The WNBA playoffs, however, are a whole different challenge.