Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty were the two teams to watch out for going into the season. Given their veteran-stacked rosters, it was expected that both teams would at least compete for the championship. But seven games into the season, the situation around the two teams has been a downward spiral, and now both are in the bottom half of their respective conference tables. Now, as Liberty and Mercury square off for the first time this season this week, WNBA analyst Steven Jones has shared his two cents regarding this matchup.

“I think it’s very fascinating right as we get to this inflection point where it feels like deja vu to a degree,” Jones said via Yahoo! Sports podcast. “If you go back to last year, do you remember the NY Liberty were 17-6, and they ended up being 21-13 like a week and a half later, and it’s like, ‘Hey, what’s going on here?”

“I feel like we’ve reached a point with the New York Liberty where the people are asking, ‘Hey, what’s going on here?'” Jones continued. “The fascinating part is that these two teams face each other on Wednesday and Friday in a ‘Hey, neither of us were supposed to be here’ type scenario, and this is a tough series for either one of these teams.”

After 7 games, Liberty’s 3-4 record has them 4th in East — a far cry from preseason expectations. Chris DeMarco’s team tipped off their campaign with back-to-back wins over the Connecticut Sun and the Washington Mystics. Since then, the Liberty have managed just one in their next five.

Injuries have forced Liberty to shuffle rotations, leaving them without key depth. The Liberty have been without their veteran guard, Sabrina Ionescu. She sustained a foot injury in the preseason and missed the initial few games for Liberty. While she did return to the lineup against Dallas, the team rested her again in the latest loss to the Portland Fire.

Their offseason acquisition, Satou Sabally, has also missed a few games. She added minutes but was sidelined by illness against Portland, exiting after four minutes in Q1. This array of injuries has limited the Liberty’s ability to use its full strength in most games.

Stewart and Jones have kept Liberty’s offense afloat, but depth gaps have crippled the team. The Liberty currently sits fifth in terms of points, 88.6, but they have been equally poor on the defensive end. According to USA Today, the Liberty have a defensive rating of 112.1 over the last three games. It’s one of the worst in the league.

Averaging 15.6 turnovers per game has compounded their defensive struggles. The parallels to last season are already visible, and Jones sees danger in the pattern. It’s still the initial few games of the season this year. But Liberty needs to make a quick turnaround before the flashes of 2025 become reality.

Phoenix, 8th in the West, mirrors the Liberty’s weakness. Both teams are vulnerable on defense, with Phoenix logging a 107.6 defensive rating, despite having players like Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper.

Both teams will look to capitalize on each other’s defensive weaknesses on Wednesday. Both the New York Liberty and the Mercury have formidable offenses and will have equal advantages in that regard. But going into the game, WNBA analyst Jones feels that the pressure will be on the Liberty.

Steven Jones Says It’s More ‘On the Line for New York Liberty’ against the Phoenix Mercury

So far in the season, the Barclays Center hasn’t been kind to the New York Liberty. In the four games they have played at home, they have won just one, conceding three in a row. This added pressure of playing in front of the home crowd after a losing streak is something that Steve Jones feels will impact the Liberty as well.

“A lot on the line for Liberty,” Jones said. “They do just have to know and be aware they have to get there. They’re in a tough scenario, because again, home stand. They haven’t played a road game since May 14, and they won’t play another one until June 8. You need to flip this home stand and win these next four games.”

Notably, the New York Liberty is also seeking redemption in this two-game series against Phoenix. It was Mercury that eliminated the Liberty from the first round of the playoffs last season. It gives the Liberty the liberty to go all-in to dominate this home series against the Mercury and, subsequently, for the Liberty to get back on track with their season.

For the first game on Wednesday, ESPN analysts have given the NY Liberty a 68.3% chance of winning. They are in the driver’s seat for now and will remain so if players like Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally return to the rotation. What are your expectations from this game? Do let us know in the comments.