The Atlanta Dream went from acing all the tests to searching for answers. After a rapid start in which they lost only four games out of the opening 16, Angel Reese and Co. have now dropped five on the trot. And all the things that made Karl Smesko’s team work have seemed out of sync. Dream’s latest loss came against the Valkyries, who defeated them for the third time this season.
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Brionna Jones has been out for the Dream to start the season, and her return might give Angel Reese some support around the rim. But the crux of this team lies in its shooting, and analyst Annie Costabile pointed out two underperforming players for Karl Smesko who expose a bigger problem.
“It still doesn’t make up for the offensive production they’re lacking when Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray aren’t shooting the ball well,” Costabile said on a potential Brionna Jones return on the No Offseason podcast. “As we’re seeing during this slump, the Dream are eleventh in three-point percentage this season.
“During this five-game skid, they’ve dropped to 14th in the league. That’s where there’s a huge gap in what they can do when Rhyne and Allisha aren’t playing to the level they’re known for on a consistent basis.
“To me, this speaks to a larger issue for them and for GM Dan Padover in the offseason. It’s about what needs to be addressed from a roster construction standpoint and who they need to think about going out and getting in the offseason.”
Karl Smesko loves shooting three-pointers and getting open looks from beyond the arc. It is a core part of his philosophy. Last year, Dream finished second in three-pointers attempted with 28.4 per game, as they scored 34 percent of their points from outside shots. This year, and especially in this five-game stretch, the three-ball has just not worked for Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard, their premier shooters from the outside.
Gray is shooting 30.1% from downtown, while Howard is slightly better at 36.8% over the season. In the last five games, those numbers have dropped to 16% and 29.48, respectively. The team’s 27% of shots in the last five games have been three-pointers, but it represents only 28% of their scores in the last five games. This inefficiency is also visible over the season. For Costabile, it’s a bigger issue than just a mid-season slump.
The only outside offseason move they made was bringing in Angel Reese, which was a significant one. She heavily improved their rebounding in the front court and is probably a major reason this team is 12-9 without Jones.
It gave them variety in the paint and gravity to create open shots. But they still have only two shooters in Howard and Gray. Even in the draft, they went for a center like Madina Okot. TeHina Pao Pao, who could be that third shooter from the bench besides the two, is playing only 9.2 minutes on average in the last five games.
Angel Reese’s three-point evolution is still a work in progress, while Naz Hillmon is giving a three-a-game like last season. If Atlanta remains committed to Smesko’s three-point-heavy system, adding another dependable perimeter shooter may become the front office’s biggest priority once the season ends.