Last weekend it was Conor McGregor. This time, it could be Lionel Messi. Ahead of Argentina’s title defense in the FIFA World Cup final on Sunday, Drake has placed a bet on the Latin American side against Spain. As sports fandoms know well by now, very few escape the dreaded ‘Drake Curse.’
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“Drake has gone big on Argentina in the World Cup Final. A $5.1M payout awaits on Stake if they beat Spain in regular time,” Stake.com shared Drake’s bet via X.
Drake betting big on Argentina could be the biggest concern for the Blue and White fans. During the 2024 Copa América semifinal between his home country of Canada and Argentina, Drake wagered $300,000 on Canada to win. Argentina won 2-0, costing Drake big. In the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final between Argentina and France, Drake placed a $1 million bet on Argentina to win in regular time (the 1×2 market). Argentina ultimately won the trophy, but because the match was tied at 3-3 after 120 minutes, Drake’s bet technically lost.
This time he’s betting $1.5 million for a winning payout of $5.1 million. Last weekend for UFC 329, he bet $1 million on the underdog, Conor McGregor, to beat Max Holloway. The fight was over in 69 seconds after McGregor injured his knee in the opening seconds from a poorly executed jump kick. Is a similar misfortune waiting for Argentina in the final?
According to TheDrakeCurse.com, he’s won 32 of his 87 publicly disclosed bets. He’s lost 55 times, and his win percentage is 37.2%.
So, Messi might need to walk an extra mile to prove Drake’s curse wrong.
Major betting platforms are offering a different insight. On platforms like Polymarket, Spain sits at 59%, while traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings list them around -178 to take the crown. While Messi continues to dominate the individual betting volume, Spain relies on a highly cohesive team structure rather than a singular focal point.
Argentina could leverage a few areas in taking on Spain. For instance, Spain has put together a historic defensive run, conceding only one goal in seven tournament matches. They have not trailed once in this entire World Cup. So, if Argentina could take the lead in the first few minutes, Spain could be on the back foot for the first time in this World Cup. It will test how Spain’s young roster handles playing from behind under immense pressure.
Spain loves to monopolize possession (averaging 64% in the tournament). Argentina, on the other hand, is incredibly comfortable defending compactly in a 4-4-2 setup before unleashing lethal counter-attacks through Julián Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez, and Enzo Fernández.
World Cup final will be more of a psychological battle between the two teams. Argentina is coming with the experience from 2022. Most of their squad from the last World Cup win is still intact, with young blood like Giuliano Simeone, Nico Paz, and Valentin Barco as additions. They should be able to hold their own against a relatively inexperienced Spain. But as goes with the Drake Curse, Argentina fans can only rest once the final whistle anoints their team champions for the second consecutive time.
