The 2024-25 NHL season was at once the best and the worst season for Toronto Maple Leafs core member Mitch Marner. After scoring a career high of 102 points (27 goals, 75 assists), Marner helped his team top the division after 25 years. However, that achievement didn’t change a thing as the Leafs choked and bowed out of the playoffs in Round 2. And that pretty much sealed the deal of Marner moving on from the Leafs after six years.

Naturally, the elite prospect immediately found his way to the top of almost every list ranking potential free agents after July 1. Yet, the NHL forward’s fate just days ahead of free agency remains shrouded in mystery. Everyone from the Vegas Golden Knights, Anaheim Ducks, Carolina Hurricanes, and more seems interested in Marner. However, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman believes one team is ahead of everyone else.

Friedman gave his final verdict on SN 590 – The Fan, giving Vegas the lead. “Vegas has been the team I’ve predicted [for Mitch Marner], I’m going to stick with that until I’m proven wrong,” said the NHL insider. You may wonder what makes Friedman so certain, considering Marner’s connections with numerous teams and the lack of concrete details. Well, it’s because this isn’t the first time Mitch Marner and Vegas have appeared in the same sentence.

In fact, Marner NHL fans could have seen the 28-year-old play for Vegas this season had their previous deal not fallen through. Friedman himself spilled the beans about a failed negotiation between the two teams from the last offseason in the late May 2025 edition of 32 Thoughts. The reason? Toronto asked for star defenseman Shea Theodore in exchange for Mitch Marner.

Mitch Marner has one foot out the door

Whenever the media has asked either the Leafs or Marner directly about moving on from the team, they’ve tactfully tiptoed around the topic. “No. No thoughts of that at all,” the hockey winger said when asked about free agency and possible departure from Toronto after their disastrous 6-1 Game 5 loss in Round 2. However, this time things seem to be different.

Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving confirmed that Mitch Marner and Toronto didn’t strike a deal. “We’ve had communication,” Treliving said Thursday. Yet, the talks didn’t yield any results and probably won’t in the last few days before free agency begins after July 1. Treliving added, “I’d probably describe it [that] unless there is significant change here, I would anticipate he’s going to hit the market.” 

Now, that’s upsetting news for the NHL star’s Toronto fan base, who hoped the team could retain Marner against the odds. Then again, the GM also seemed to hint that their star player hadn’t received any lucrative offers. “We’ll see. We’ll see where things go,” added the 55-year-old, keeping some semblance of hope alive. But Marner won’t come cheap.

With Mitch Marner’s six-year, $65.4 million ($10.9 million) contract expiring, experts predict his next contract to break records. In fact, with Connor McDavid holding off from re-signing with the Oilers, many believe Marner could even match Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million AAV. Meanwhile, The Athletic’s James Mirtle recently predicted that Marner could sign a shorter, four-year, $13 million deal. So, what’s your take on the situation? Write your thoughts in the comments.