As excitement builds for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, a less glamorous storyline has begun to steal the spotlight: the weather. With forecasts calling for a 90% chance of rain on Saturday, Churchill Downs might not just see a battle of horses but of mudders—those who thrive when the track turns soggy. In a sport where fractions of seconds matter, wet conditions could flip the script on every prediction.

OutKast once said, “You can plan a pretty picnic, but you can’t predict the weather.” That lyric might as well be tattooed on the Derby Day form guide. With 19 horses slated to compete and only six with true experience in the slop, bettors and fans alike are scrambling for answers. Who can handle the mud, and who might get stuck in it?

Meet the six horses who’ve already proved they can muck it up at the Kentucky Derby 2025

Let’s start with the names that matter when the track gets sticky. Neoequos (30-1) comes with a mixed bag—he failed to finish in his rainy debut but later bounced back with a 3.5-length win at Gulfstream Park in January. That alone might earn him some last-minute wagers.

Final Gambit (30-1), trained by Brad Cox, broke his maiden on a rainy day at Turfway Park and took the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on an all-weather surface. Though he’s yet to race on traditional dirt, the maturity and adaptability his team swears by could give him a muddy-day edge in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

American Promise (30-1) is another to watch. A son of Justify, he won in the mud at Oaklawn in December and is no stranger to sloppy surfaces. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas wouldn’t be sending him out if he didn’t believe in his grit.

Then there’s Coal Battle (30-1), perhaps the most proven of all mudders. He’s 2-for-2 on wet tracks, including a dominant Delta Downs win. Luxor Cafe (8‑1) has thrived in Japan’s rain-soaked conditions, winning three of four muddy starts.

Flying Mohawk (30-1) rounds out the known group. While he hasn’t raced on a dirt track yet, he showed consistency in wet turf conditions—a promising sign if things get swampy.

Breeding doesn’t lie

Beyond past performances, breeding analytics offer another lens. Horse Racing Nation’s Sire Analytics suggest Final Gambit, American Promise, Tiztastic, Sandman, Chunk of Gold, Owen Almighty, and Burnham Square all come from sires with a 20%+ win rate on wet dirt routes. That’s no small stat.

Meanwhile, Journalism—the 3-1 Kentucky Derby favorite—along with Neoequos, Luxor Cafe, Publisher, Flying Mohawk, and others, falls in the 15-19% win range for sires in muddy dirt routes. While not headline-making numbers, they suggest competence in less-than-ideal terrain.

But not every pedigree is built for the slop. Coal Battle’s sire, Coal Front, has an 8% wet track win rate, and Baeza’s sire, McKinzie, has yet to produce a single winner in those conditions. Admire Daytona’s sire hasn’t had any North American wet track starts, leaving him a total unknown.

The big names face the mud test for the first time at the Kentucky Derby

While Journalism might be the headline act, he’s never faced a sloppy or muddy surface. Thirteen of the 19 runners will be taking on the wet for the first time. That alone adds a massive element of unpredictability.

Favorites like Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) are looking to prove their class on a soggy Kentucky Derby track. Sovereignty has at least won at Churchill before, which may offer some reassurance. And while Sandman boasts a hefty $1.2 million price tag, rain doesn’t care about price—it favors those who can dig in.

Even Bob Baffert’s contender Citizen Bull, breaking from the dreaded No. 1 post, may struggle if the mud starts flying. Baffert himself joked they’d tell the colt to bolt like “he just robbed a bank.”

In a Derby that already promised drama, the weather has added a new layer of intrigue. While casual fans focus on hats and mint juleps, sharp bettors will be eyeing the skies. Horses like Coal Battle, Final Gambit, and American Promise might not dominate headlines—but when the mud starts flying, they could leave the favorites in their wake.

So if you’re placing your bets, don’t just look at talent—look at traction. Because at the 2025 Kentucky Derby, the best horse might be the fastest and the best mudder.