The situation surrounding Shavkat Rakhmonov continues to remain uncertain. On the one hand, reports indicate the former top UFC welterweight contender was resuming his training, but on the other hand, clouds of doubt still hang over his return to the Octagon.

The latest development saw one of the division’s top contenders, Sean Brady, raise questions regarding Shavkat Rakhmonov’s potential comeback.

“I don’t think he’s ever going to fight again,” Brady said in The Daniel Cormier Interview. “Cuz he keep every time he comes to come back, his knee just keeps going out. He just can’t. He just can’t make it.

“He’s just not going to be able to make it through a camp. Yeah, that’s it. I’ve never had knee problems, but when you see guys with knee problems, like it’s just over and over and over again, especially with him.”

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To set some context here, Brady and Cormier were discussing the welterweight landscape that recently saw its champion, Islam Makhachev, defend his title from Ian Machado Garry. While Carlos Prates and Michael Morales gear up for a string of exciting matchups, Rakhmonov remains firmly in conversation at 170 pounds.

However, as Brady mentioned, concerns continue to stem from the circumstances Rakhmonov finds himself in right now. An Uzbekistan-born fighter of Kazakh nationality, Rakhmonov possesses an outstanding resume that saw him become M-1 Global welterweight champion before entering the UFC, where he remains unbeaten following a seven-fight winning streak. Yet, his career has been marred by injuries.

It’s been close to 21 months since he stepped away from the cage. His absence followed the title eliminator at UFC 310, where he defeated Ian Machado Garry by a unanimous decision.

Reports indicated that Rakhmonov entered the fight with a meniscus injury and partial ACL tear in his knee. Yet he chose to face Garry rather than withdraw. Despite the win that saw him become the title contender, he remained sidelined for subsequent months, eventually undergoing surgery after going through rehab. However, that did not prove sufficient.

He had to withdraw from the title fight against Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, which took place on May 10, 2005.

Entering 2026, Rakhmonov attempted to work his way back. But in doing so, he reportedly injured the same knee, forcing him to undergo another round of surgery. Rakhmonov’s manager, Danny Rubenstein, said the fighter would remain out of the cage for the next nine to ten months.

Beyond that injury update, one of the first consequences Rakhmonov faced was being removed from the UFC’s welterweight rankings.

Taking that history into account, along with the personal loss Rakhmonov faced when his father, Baktybai Rakhmanuly Alpamysov, passed away, Sean Brady’s words raise an alarm.

However, there is a counterargument to consider.

Count Shavkat Rakhmonov out at your own risk

In a recent appearance at Home of Fight, ‘Wonderboy’ Stephen Thompson speculated that it could be too early to brush aside Shavkat Rakhmonov, who defeated him by second-round submission three years ago, which kicked off a losing streak now extended to three fights. Thompson believes Rakhmonov remains a “huge threat” for anyone in the weight class.

More importantly, Wonderboy’s comments follow a recent update from Rakhmonov’s camp. Early in August, footage of the former M-1 Global champion training and trying different techniques, including wrestling and striking, appeared on social media, sparking excitement among fans.

In that milieu, Rakhmonov’s trainer, Eduard Bazrov, suggested that the fighter may not return in 2026 and estimated that he could most likely be ready for a fight by February of 2027.

“Right now, Shavkat is recovering from his leg injury and training once a day. We’re focusing on physical conditioning and boxing—doing what he can handle for now,” Bazrov said in an interview.

That said, the trainer remains confident that his star pupil would likely get a top opponent for his return matchup, someone ranked in the division’s top-10, if not the top five.

So despite worrying concerns over Rakhmonov’s prospects, fans should not lose heart entirely.

While Rakhmonov’s recent training footage should not be considered confirmation of his return to full sparring or that he is booked for a UFC fight, it should not be deemed the end of the road for the fighter, regarded by many as the ultimate boogeyman.