One is a battle-hardened veteran yearning for redemption, while the other is a hungry prospect eager to make his mark. Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato bring more than just contrasting styles to UFC Vegas 106 on May 17; they also bring two very distinct stories. ‘Bearjew’ returns to familiar terrain at light heavyweight, where his submission game once terrified the division. After losing three consecutive middleweight fights, the 37-year-old Scotsman is back at 205 pounds with a grappling-heavy toolset and a do-or-die mindset. But standing in his way is Rodolfo Bellato, a 29-year-old Brazilian who is anything but cautious.

‘Trator,’ coming off a hard-fought draw with Jimmy Crute, fights with offensive pressure that overwhelms less mobile opponents. With swift punching, deadly accuracy, and a flawless takedown defense rate, the Brazilian has everything he needs to keep this fight standing. In a conventional striker-versus-grappler matchup, fans should expect a chaotic chess battle. If Paul Craig drags it to the mat, it is his world. If not, Bellato may just walk away with another standout performance. So, who is more likely to win? Well, let’s do some prediction through statistics, shall we?

UFC Vegas 106: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato Stats

‘BearJew’ is a submission specialist to the core. With 13 of his 17 professional wins coming via tap out, he’s built a career on changing the tide from the bottom, particularly with his trademark triangle chokes. Paul Craig, who stands 6’3″ and has a 76″ reach, isn’t the most imposing striker, delivering only 2.52 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy.

But don’t count him out yet. Because what he lacks in volume, he compensates for with his jiu-jitsu threat. He attempts an average of 1.4 submissions per 15 minutes, which is far above the division average. However, his low takedown accuracy (20%) and weak defense (37%) make it difficult for him to control where the fight goes—unless his opponents accept the bait and get to the ground with him.

Meanwhile, Rodolfo Bellato fights with the determination of a man who would not back down. ‘Trator,’ who has a nearly similar 6’3″ frame and slightly longer 77″ reach, delivers more than double the volume of Craig, averaging 6.28 major strikes per minute with a lethal 62% accuracy. His takedown defense? So far, everything has gone perfectly. That stat alone reveals all about how he intends to handle Craig’s ground threat.

The Brazilian isn’t eager to grapple, but he is capable of neutralizing it. Bellato also mixes in 1.06 takedowns per fight, proving his willingness to change levels when it is advantageous. Bellato may absorb as many shots as he lands (6.31 SApM), but against an opponent like Craig, who isn’t known for power or production, that statistic is less concerning. What matters is whether he can keep upright while being dangerous, which appears to be his sweet spot. So, who is more likely to win?

Craig vs. Bellato: Breakdown and Prediction

The fight boils down to a simple formula: if Paul Craig can bring Bellato to the ground early and often, he’ll have a good chance to do what he does best—snatch limbs or necks out of nowhere and walk away victorious. His most recent fight, a decision loss to Bo Nickal, showed that he can still be dangerous on the mat against top grapplers. He struck 48 total strikes, 47 of which were significant, and all of his distance shots connected, but he struggled to find his flow and control the pace.

On the other hand, Rodolfo Bellato’s draw with Jimmy Crute highlighted what makes him both fascinating and risky. He hit 89 of 141 significant strikes at a staggering 63% rate, with 95% coming from range. That kind of striking efficiency, combined with rock-solid takedown defense, is designed to shut down fighters like Craig. He may not chase submissions, but he doesn’t need to—his fists speak for themselves.

So, who wins at UFC Vegas 106? For the time being, the bout is based on a style matchup that favors Rodolfo Bellato. Unless Craig executes one of his legendary Hail Mary submissions, this one will most likely finish with Bellato tearing him apart on his feet and going away with a statement victory. But what do you think? Do you agree with our prediction? Let us know in the comments.