The stage is set for UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi, but the air around the heavyweight championship bout between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane is unusually tense. Fans anticipate fireworks, but speculation has dominated conversations almost as much as the fight itself. Aspinall, newly promoted to undisputed champion, will make his first title defense against the division’s perennial contender, Gane, who has previously come close to winning the crown.

So, naturally, the questions arise: Will Aspinall cement his rise to the top, or will ‘Bon Gamin’ finally grab what has eluded him? What makes the fight even more intriguing is that both competitors are noted for their speed, precision, and technical mastery, characteristics that are quite rare in the heavyweight division. With such similarities between the duo, the natural question that comes to mind is how these two fighters compare head-to-head in the numbers. Well, let’s dive into their stats.

Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane stats comparison

Physically, Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane are nearly identical in size, but tiny differences matter. The Briton is 6’5″ with a 78-inch reach and weighs around 251 pounds, while Gane is 6’4″ with an 81-inch reach and weighs about 245 pounds. The Frenchman’s longer reach is a potential advantage for keeping distance, but Aspinall’s explosiveness, crisp combinations, and ability to close gaps quickly make him a difficult challenge for anyone attempting to stay outside his range.

The numbers show why the undisputed champion is feared in the UFC. He lands 8.07 significant strikes per minute with 67% accuracy, absorbs only 2.89 per minute, and maintains a record-breaking +5.18 strike differential, the highest in UFC history. On the ground, he averages 3.27 takedowns every 15 minutes with 100% accuracy and 1.63 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Defensively, he has 100% takedown defense, making him practically unstoppable in wrestling exchanges. Notably, his fights average under 2 minutes and 2 seconds, showing his aggressive style and finishing prowess. Meanwhile, ‘Bon Gamin’ presents a contrasting but equally dangerous approach.

Ciryl Gane delivers 5.26 significant strikes per minute with 61% accuracy, absorbs 2.23 strikes per minute, and defends 61% of opponent blows. Grappling is not his primary strength; he averages 0.7 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 25% accuracy rate and submits opponents less frequently. Instead, he utilizes his 81-inch reach to focus on spacing, timing, and controlling exchanges in his style.

His two career defeats, against Jon Jones (submission) and Francis Ngannou (decision), highlight the limitations of his wrestling defense under elite pressure while also showcasing his striking ability at the highest level. Their finishing ability and fight tempo reveal a clear stylistic contrast.

Tom Aspinall thrives in high-pressure, high-risk situations, pushing early exchanges and combining attacks and takedowns to dominate opponents. Ciryl Gane, on the other hand, uses a more strategic approach, relying on movement, space, and precise striking to control the pace and capitalize on mistakes.

Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane stylistic comparison

Tom Aspinall is a pressure-heavy, fast-paced striker who easily switches to wrestling when openings arise. His mix of speed, knockout power, and top control allows him to finish fights standing or on the mat, making him unpredictable and difficult to prepare for. His explosiveness is further amplified by his experience in several high-stakes UFC fights, which allows him to read opponents and adjust mid-fight.

In contrast, Ciryl Gane is methodical and technically proficient. He frustrates opponents with lateral movement, feints, and long-range strikes while maintaining distance. His kicks are accurate, and his timing allows him to land on the move, making him a threat in longer exchanges. While he is less powerful on the ground, his defensive grappling and evasive footwork allow him to evade Aspinall’s takedown-heavy approach. As a result, UFC 321 is shaping up to be a duel of aggression vs. precision, with Aspinall pushing and ‘Bon Gamin’ countering.

Final prediction for UFC 321

The fight’s outcome depends largely on where it takes place. If Tom Aspinall can close the distance quickly and use his explosive, multi-level attacks, he has a good chance of finishing Gane early, possibly in the second round. In contrast, if Gane can maintain spacing, control the pace, and prevent early chaos, he may stretch the fight into the later rounds, scoring points with accuracy and timing or perhaps snatching a decision.

Tom Aspinall via TKO in Round 2 is the most likely outcome, considering his unrivaled pressure, speed, and finishing abilities. However, Gane’s technical accuracy means that any lapse might tip the fight in his favor, making UFC 321 a must-see fight in which a single sequence could determine the heavyweight champion’s fate.