Chael Sonnen has been closely watching the featherweight shake-up, and the analyst has finally made his prediction for UFC 314. With Diego Lopes riding a wave of hype and Alexander Volkanovski aiming to rebound from a crushing title loss, ‘The American Gangster’ provided a detailed comparison of the two. He talked down what each man brings to the Octagon this weekend, from fight IQ and pace to finishing ability and mental toughness. After analyzing everything, the former UFC fighter made it clear: he has a strong view on how this one will finish. So, who does he think will walk out of Miami with the belt?

Well, to answer it simply, it’s not Alexander Volkanovski. Despite the hype surrounding Volkanovski, Sonnen believes Diego Lopes has too much for him. ‘The American Gangster’ praised Volkanovski’s ability to push the tempo like few others in MMA history, describing it as one of the most dangerous weapons in the sport. While Lopes may have the advantage in raw explosiveness, Sonnen sees ‘The Great’ as a fighter who thrives in deep seas and gradually wears out his opponents. “Do you think it’s very likely that Lopes grounds and pounds him? Do you think that he can go out there and control Volkanovski for the better part of 25 minutes? I don’t think he can do it.”

However, it is worth noting that Lopes may have the edge in raw explosiveness, also, when it comes to overall fight confidence. Why? Well, that’s because ‘The Great’ has lost three of his past four fights, including two unsuccessful lightweight bids and a stunning knockout against Ilia Topuria, which cost him his featherweight title. With Topuria out of the picture and the title on the line, Volk enters UFC 314 knowing he must win, as another loss, particularly a dramatic one, would raise significant concerns about whether his time has passed. ‘The American Gangster’ said, “The biggest thing that happens when a guy who’s never been knocked out gets knocked out is he begins to question himself. I’ve heard people come and try to make it scientific and tell you about the fluid in your brain. You’ve got this little switch right here in the jaw—shut up. He changes his offense.”

Even on ESPN’s Good Guy/Bad Guy, ‘The American Gangster’ was open about the consequences of a third defeat. He named fighters such as Israel Adesanya, who was invincible at first but quickly sank after two consecutive losses. If Lopes pulls off the upset, Volkanovski may face a similar fate. “If he loses to Lopes, he is getting knocked out. He is not going to lose a decision to Lopes,” Sonnen stated. “Once somebody gets that chin or once somebody gets that jaw, that’s another thing. They just don’t come back.” His opinion is simple: if the former champion falls again, it will not be by decision, and it will be difficult to recover from. For Alexander Volkanovski, this is more than simply a chance at redemption. It is a war for legacy. So, is he prepared for the fight?

Alexander Volkanovski ready to reclaim his throne

Following Chael Sonnen‘s brutal and honest assessment of what a third consecutive loss could mean for Alexander Volkanovski, all eyes are now on the former champion himself. He has heard the noise. He understands the stakes. Despite being 1-3 in his last four games, Volkanovski isn’t backing down. Speaking with Brett Okamoto on ESPN MMA, he revealed that doubts began to seep in during the layoff. That knockout loss against Ilia Topuria was devastating—not only physically, but mentally. Nonetheless, ‘The Great’ believes something snapped early in camp.

He said, “There were questions—am I gonna be able to flip the switch? Am I gonna be the same guy once I flip that switch? We found out that early.” There is no bluff in his tone. He believes the switch is still there and that the man who has dominated the featherweight division for years is not yet gone. However, belief alone will not suffice, and not everyone is convinced that a comeback is possible. Diego Lopes is younger, faster on the ground, and considerably more dangerous than most gave him credit for only a few months ago. Daniel Cormier isn’t putting all of his money on Volk either.

During a recent interview with Sonnen, DC made a rather stark comparison: “If he isn’t careful, he becomes the Honky Tonk Man.” The point? Even the longest title runs can come to an end quickly—and some careers never recover.  There is hope, though. Michael Bisping, for one, is not ready to write Volk off. On his YouTube channel, he warned fans not to fall into the trap of short-term memory. “Do not let recency bias fool you. Yes, the last few fights haven’t gone his way, but he’s still that guy,” Bisping explained. And maybe that is the best way to look at things. Volkanovski has already gotten himself out of difficult situations. We’ve seen him exceed expectations before, against Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, and even Makhachev in their first fight. This weekend in Miami, we’ll find out if Diego Lopes has one more run in him—or if he’s set to end an era. What do you think? Who will win the fight? Let us know in the comments.