Fighters being confident in their skills is one thing. But when it begins to push on the extremes, it takes the appearance of hubris. This was on full display when Ian Machado Garry recently spoke at the signing press conference with Matchroom Talent Agency. Weeks before challenging Islam Makhachev for the welterweight title at UFC 330 in Philadelphia, the Irishman laid out exactly how he wants the fight to go. And no, he isn’t looking for the quickest path to victory.

“I want a fourth-round finish. I don’t want any early knockout, because then there’s ifs, buts, maybes, there’s excuses,” Ian Garry explained. “I want four rounds of domination, and in that fourth round, I’m going to tell everybody, I’m going to do it now, and then I’m going to go in, and I’m going to finish him. I’m going to open the door, I’m going to walk him into my traps and then take his head clean off his shoulders.”

The confidence is understandable. The strategy, however, appears to border on arrogance, especially considering Makhachev sits at roughly -390, and Garry remains a +280 underdog according to FanDuel. As such, once the clip made its way online, former two-division UFC champion Daniel Cormier, on his YouTube channel, questioned whether the Irishman was approaching the biggest fight of his career with the right mindset.

“I love confidence,” DC said. “I love a guy that believes in himself. I love someone that’s willing to go out on a limb and call their shot.

“What I don’t understand, though, is sometimes a person is misguided in their thoughts. And when they’re misguided in their thoughts, they set themselves up for a very, very bad night or a bad result. I’m not saying Ian Garry cannot beat Islam Makhachev. What I’m saying is you’ve got to take that as it comes. You can’t try to say I want to beat the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the world in a certain round because ‘I don’t want it to be a fluke.’ If you win, it does not matter how you win.”

Daniel Cormier’s concern wasn’t about Garry believing he could win. It was about believing he could dictate exactly how the fight would unfold. In MMA, fights rarely go the way one wishes them to go. As such, if Ian Garry is focused on battering Makhachev for four rounds before looking for a finish, he may miss out on opportunities in the fight that may help him close the fight early if and when they come. As the former two-division UFC champion explained, in a fight, “it doesn’t matter how you win, it only matters that you win.” As someone with a plethora of experience at the highest level, DC’s warning to the Irishman is as sound as it can get.

However, Ian Garry certainly has the tools to make the fight competitive. He has one of the best cardio among all the welterweights, which has helped him in the later rounds in fights against Belal Muhammad and Carlos Prates. The 28-year-old also boasts an excellent 80% takedown defense rate, one of the highest in the division. Plus, his 6-foot-3 frame could make it harder for Islam Makhachev to take him down and keep him there, the way he could do with others like Dustin Poirier and Jack Della Maddalena.

At the same time, the UFC welterweight champion has consistently shown that he becomes even more dangerous in the championship rounds. Against both Dustin Poirier and JDM, he leaned more heavily on his grappling as the fights wore on. If Ian Garry intentionally extends the contest, he could eventually find himself dealing with the same problem that has troubled many an elite fighter.

Still, there is no saying how a fight can go, especially when the bout is between two gifted fighters with vastly different fighting styles. Yet, Daniel Cormier isn’t the only former champion who believes the fight will ultimately hinge on where it’s fought.

Another UFC legend sees Islam Makhachev vs Ian Garry going similarly

Georges St-Pierre is someone who’s been there and done that. The former welterweight champion famously went up to middleweight for his retirement fight at UFC 217 in 2017 and beat a bigger and stronger opponent in Michael Bisping. So when it comes to predicting a fight like Makhachev vs Garry in what would be the Dagestan native’s first title defense at 170 lbs, he believes each fighter has a clear path to victory.

“I think it’s going to be a good fight,” St-Pierre told MMA Junkie. “Ian Garry is definitely a tough opponent, a very good striker. But Islam, once again his goal is going to be to bring the fight to the ground. I think if he’s able to do that, he’s going to have an edge. If Ian Garry is able to keep it on the feet, Ian is going to have an edge. So it’s going to be interesting.

“Islam has the edge in terms of skills because he’s more well-rounded. He can do it all, especially with his grappling. He’s got an edge in that department and I think that’s what he’s going to try to go for.”

GSP’s assessment echoed comments made months earlier in February by Makhachev’s longtime coach, Javier Mendez, who predicted that Garry’s takedown defense alone wouldn’t be “enough to stop Islam from taking him down.”

However, considering that this has been a year of underdogs clinching big wins against extremely tough opponents and pound-for-pound fighters, like Justin Gaethje against Ilia Topuria and Sean Strickland against Khamzat Chimaev, it’s hard not to believe that Ian Garry has a puncher’s chance. And sometimes, that may be all he needs.

Whether Ian Garry’s plan to wait until the fourth round is confidence or overconfidence won’t be known until the Octagon door closes on August 15. But if DC is right, trying to script a perfect finish against the UFC’s top pound-for-pound fighter could be the very thing that leads to the “bad night” he is warning the Irishman about.