Dustin Poirier isn’t fighting at UFC 324, but he’s still found a way to put skin in the game. This time, it’s with predictions. And if history has taught fans anything, it’s that Poirier’s picks tend to age poorly, albeit violently. Just ask anyone who tailed his last set of predictions for UFC 322 and watched them unravel in a string of knockouts.

When Poirier sat down on The Ariel Helwani Show, and the conversation drifted toward UFC 324, it wasn’t just about predictions or picking sides. It felt more like a veteran recognizing a familiar storm forming. The real question wasn’t who he favored, but whether we were about to see the same kind of chaos he knows all too well.

That edge came through as Helwani pushed him for a firm call in a clip later shared by Jed I. Goodman on X, Poirier didn’t dance around it. “I’m telling you, Justin by KO. That’s as tough as it gets,” he said, backing Gaethje without hesitation in the interim lightweight title fight against Paddy Pimblett.

When Helwani moved to Sean O’Malley vs. Song Yadong, Poirier paused, but not for long, “Oh, tough one. Song.” Heavyweights rarely need much analysis, and Dustin Poirier treated it that way. Asked about Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis, he answered with one word, “Derrick.”

Not every fight got that same level of certainty, though. When Helwani threw Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo at him, Poirier didn’t pretend to have all the answers. He paused, shrugged it off, and admitted, “I don’t know, I’ll have to look at that one.”

News served to you like never before!

Prefer us on Google, To get latest news on feed

Prefer Us on Google

Then came a pick that made you stop for a second. Jean Silva vs. Arnold Allen isn’t exactly a throwaway matchup, and it’s one most fans still debate, but ‘The Diamond’ didn’t waver, “Jean Silva.”

And this is where things get interesting. Not long ago, Poirier went on record backing what he called the “dog trifecta”: Beneil Dariush, Leon Edwards, and Sean Brady. Yet, all three got knocked out at UFC 322. That context matters because it turns his UFC 324 picks into more than opinions. Fans aren’t just listening, they’re bracing for what comes next.

This brings us to the obvious question: why is Poirier still backing Justin Gaethje when oddsmakers are leaning toward Paddy Pimblett?

Dustin Poirier puts his money behind Justin Gaethje knocking out Paddy Pimblett

For Poirier, this isn’t about hype or momentum. It’s about lived experience. He’s shared the Octagon with Gaethje twice. He’s felt that pressure, those exchanges, the chaos that builds over championship minutes. And that context shaped his stance when he broke it down on The Ariel Helwani Show.

“I just think [Gaethje’s] been in those 25-minute fights. He’s been in dogfights before,” Poirier said, pointing directly at the experience gap. He didn’t dismiss Pimblett’s rise, but he framed it as untested territory.

Poirier then made it clear he doesn’t see many safe pathways for Paddy Pimblett against Justin Gaethje. In his view, Pimblett would struggle to control the fight either standing or on the mat, suggesting Gaethje’s pressure and takedown defense would neutralize those options. He also nodded to ‘The Highlight’s defining threat: raw power mixed with chaos.

Gaethje is willing to step into danger to land something devastating, and the Louisiana native stressed how difficult it is to avoid that kind of risk for a full five rounds. Importantly, Poirier had been vocal about wanting a “legends only” opponent for his farewell bout, a stance that effectively ruled out names like Paddy Pimblett. That decision didn’t sit well with the rising Liverpudlian, who fired back publicly.

Yet, his belief in Justin Gaethje isn’t abstract. After all, Poirier lived it as he lost to Gaethje by knockout in their UFC 291 clash, and he sees the same ending looming. So much so that he’s putting his money behind it now that retirement allows him to wager.

According to him, “Every now and then [I partake in sports betting]. I’m definitely gonna partake in that [fight]. Yeah, [I’m going with Gaethje by knockout].”

Yet, after his UFC 322 predictions, fans know how quickly confidence can flip into irony. So, when Poirier says “Gaethje by knockout,” is he seeing the fight clearer than the odds suggest? Or is he tempting fate once again? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!