The 2020s haven’t been kind to former UFC star Tony Ferguson. The UFC veteran hasn’t registered a win since 2019. Earlier this year, he finally parted ways with the Las Vegas-based promotion after enduring an eight-fight skid that saw the former interim champion both choked out and knocked out more than once. With clips of his sluggish Octagon movement etched into fan memory, concerns over his health grew louder. Still, in typical Tony Ferguson fashion, the 41-year-old insists he has no worries about his condition. Now, the former interim lightweight champion is set to make his boxing debut.

On the other side, Nathaniel Bustamante, better known as Salt Papi, knows exactly what adjustments are needed ahead of the biggest fight of his Misfits Boxing career at Manchester Arena. The TikTok star returns to the ring tonight, live on DAZN, to face the UFC legend for the MFB Interim Middleweight Title. Scheduled for five rounds of three minutes each, their bout serves as part of the undercard for Luke Rockhold vs. Darren Till at Misfits 22: Ring of Thrones. But one question persists: Who has the better chance of winning?

Tony Ferguson vs. Salt Papi: A look at the physical attributes

The 41-year-old welterweight from California is set to make his boxing debut after enduring an eight-fight losing streak in the UFC. Standing at 5’11” (180cm) with a 76.5″ (194 cm) reach, Ferguson brings both size and experience into the ring against his younger opponent. Weighing in at 167.2 lbs (75.8 kg) compared to Salt Papi’s 168.5 lbs (76.4 kg), he enters slightly lighter. But does that mean Tony Ferguson has a better chance of winning? Not really.

On the other side is 31-year-old Salt Papi, who was born in the Philippines and now represents the UK. He looks to secure his third win after stopping Kenny Ojuederie via third-round TKO last year. Holding a record of 4 wins and 2 losses in Misfits, all 4 of his victories have come by knockout. As a result, Salt Papi boasts a perfect 100% KO ratio and serious power. In terms of physical stats, he stands 5’10” (178 cm) with a 73″ (185 cm) reach, giving Ferguson the edge in both height and reach. On paper, the matchup appears close to a 50-50, but beyond physical attributes, other factors will surely play a key role in determining the outcome.

The X factor in Tony Ferguson vs. Salt Papi

Let’s be honest here. Tony Ferguson probably won’t win, as it feels like we’ve already passed that point. Despite him being a veteran MMA star, each past appearance of his has only grown more difficult to watch, yet his heart is still there. And for that, you have to admire him. After all, “El Cucuy” has to win something this year, and a victory could earn him over $400k while also boosting his $2 million net worth [according to Celebrity Net Worth]. And really, what better way than against an influencer, right?

Still, the more realistic outlook leans toward Salt Papi, who could earn around $300k with a win. He’s dedicated real time to boxing since 2022, staying active and picking up solid performances. While his competition hasn’t matched Ferguson’s experience level, he’s been consistent, something Ferguson hasn’t been in recent years.

It’s worth noting Ferguson has only lost by strikes twice in his eight-fight skid, meaning he could still unleash his violent side and pull off an upset. But history hasn’t been kind to aging MMA warriors making these kinds of transitions, especially into boxing. Betting odds reflect that reality, placing Ferguson as a +400 heavy underdog against Salt Papi at -550.

Who do you think will come out on top?