A year ago in Shanghai, Zizou Bergs walked away from a match against Novak Djokovic with a lesson about the names on the other side of the net. The Belgian later admitted that he had been playing the reputation, not the player. In the same city, Alexander Zverev was dealing with a very different kind of frustration. During his loss to Arthur Rinderknech, the German had to stop and change his sweat-soaked shoes as Shanghai’s humidity took its toll. He still lost 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, extending a season in which he was struggling to trust his own game.

Twelve months later, Bergs was facing another of tennis’s biggest names in Carlos Alcaraz, fresh off his Japan Open title. The world No. 39 made the most of his chance, hitting 24 winners to Alcaraz’s 16 before converting a match point in the second-set tiebreak to win 7-5, 7-6(4). The defeat ended Alcaraz’s last mathematical chance of catching Zverev in the year-end rankings, confirming the German as the season’s No. 1. With Jannik Sinner already ruled out for the rest of the year with a knee injury, the 29-year-old Zverev will become the oldest player to claim the year-end honour for the first time.

“It’s been a fantastic season for me winning in Paris and New York and knowing that I will finish the year on top of the rankings is just a dream come true,” Zverev stated after achieving the milestone. “So much work and effort have been put into achieving this goal, especially after coming back from the ankle injury. I look forward to finishing the season in style.” 

The injury he mentioned goes back to the 2022 French Open semifinal against Rafael Nadal, when he severely twisted his right ankle and left the court in a wheelchair. The damage was extensive: Zverev tore all three lateral ligaments in his right ankle and underwent surgery in June 2022. He had been locked in a three-hour, 13-minute battle with Nadal when the injury forced him to retire with the second set still unfinished. At the time, he was already ranked No. 3 in the world and was challenging one of the greatest clay-court players in history for a place in the final. ATP Tour’s account of the injury captures just how close he was to breaking through in Paris.

It was one of the lowest moments of his career, and that makes this peak feel even greater. The comeback was not an immediate return to his best, either. Zverev later spoke about still managing pain and struggling to move the way he wanted to in early 2023. Even if Zverev loses every match till the end of the season, he will still secure the year-end No. 1 ranking. The ranking is secured, but the story around it is far from finished.

Zverev is not world No. 1 just yet. He is currently No. 2, and the earliest he can overtake Sinner in the official rankings is November 2. He is mathematically certain of finishing the season on top once the final rankings come out on November 23. Sinner has not played since beating Zverev in the Wimbledon final in July, and he has now ruled himself out for the rest of the year. He will become only the second German man to do so, after Boris Becker in 1991, and the 30th player overall to achieve this coveted ranking. 

That distinction matters because the year-end honour and the weekly ATP rankings do not change at the same time. Zverev can be certain of finishing the season first without immediately taking over the top spot in the official rankings. The result in Shanghai settled the season-long race; November’s ranking updates will determine when that achievement translates into the weekly standings. The official Shanghai Masters report confirmed that Zverev had secured the year-end honour while remaining No. 2.

The German won the French Open and the US Open with at least one of Sinner or Alcaraz absent through injury. It doesn’t take anything away from the titles, but it does shed light on why the race went his way. Besides his two Grand Slam wins, he reached the Wimbledon final and the Australian Open semifinals. He also notched his 60th tour-level win of the season by beating Quentin Halys on Sunday. In 2024, he ended the year at No. 2 for the first time in his career, and this time he has bettered that. 

The injury factor is relevant, but it is not the whole explanation. Sinner’s season-ending knee problem removed a major rival from the remaining ranking race, while Alcaraz’s exit in Shanghai closed the last mathematical route to catching Zverev. Neither circumstance changes the matches Zverev won to collect his points. His two Grand Slam titles, two other deep runs at the majors and 60 tour-level victories provide a broader measure of his season than the ranking alone.

The ATP’s report on his 60th win also shows how hard-earned that milestone was: Zverev beat Halys 6-4, 6-7(8), 6-3 in a match lasting two hours and 17 minutes, despite letting two match points slip in the second-set tiebreak.

After Halys victory, Zverev shared that he has picked his moments to pick this season and that strategy has clearly worked. There is still plenty to play for. The 28-year-old will head to the Paris Masters after Shanghai and then the ATP Finals in November as the top seed, with only 200 points to defend in Turin and aiming for a third title there. 

His approach to scheduling and choosing where to push hardest has therefore become part of the season’s story. With the year-end ranking no longer in doubt, the remaining tournaments offer him a chance to add to his title count rather than protect a lead in a race that is already settled. The ATP Finals are particularly relevant: Zverev has won the event twice, in 2018 and 2021, and a third title would give him another major achievement to take into the off-season.

First, he faces Alexander Bublik in the Shanghai fourth round on Tuesday. The Kazakh leads the head-to-head with 3-1 against the top seed, with the latest win coming at the Halle Open 2023 in the semifinal, where Bublik won the match in straight sets.

That makes Bublik a genuine test rather than a routine stop on Zverev’s way to the final. The German is coming off a tight three-set win over Halys, while Bublik has previously shown he can disrupt his rhythm. With the ranking race settled, Zverev can focus on the immediate task: extending his run in a tournament where he has yet to lift the trophy.

The German is still looking for his first title in Shanghai, his best performance came in 2019 when he finished as runner-up. With the ranking secured, he can chase the rest of the season in exactly the way he said he wanted to, in style.