Rafael Jodar was ranked No. 165 when he boarded the flight to Melbourne for the Australian Open in January. If you’d told him then that, by year’s end, he’d be fighting to hold on to an ATP Finals place, with Alex de Minaur closing in and 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic still in the hunt, he probably would’ve called you crazy.
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Jodar officially broke into the Top 10 in November and is currently competing at the Paris Masters, ranked No. 10 in the world. That should be enough to get him to Turin for the ATP Finals, with World No. 2 Jannik Sinner withdrawing as he recovers from a knee injury. The margin, however, remains thin for him.
Jodar beat Chile’s Alejandro Tabilo 6-2, 6-3 in the Round of 64 in Nanterre. The win brought him to 3,234 points, just 64 ahead of de Minaur. Then there’s an extremely motivated Djokovic in 11th with 2,900 points.
The Serb, who has had a difficult 2026 season, has made clear he wants to be in Turin this year. However, the seven-time champion at the Paris Masters has a tough draw this year, as his first-round opponent is Valentin Vacherot, who is coming off winning the title in Basel and previously beat the Serb in their only match, in Shanghai in 2025. For Djokovic, winning the title may be the only way to secure his place in the Finals. A semifinal or runner-up finish could keep him in contention, but he would need other results to go his way.
Jodar, meanwhile, did not start his match against Tabilo well, losing his serve to go 1-2 down in the first set. But then, a switch in him flicked, and the Spaniard gave the Chilean no leeway, winning five games in a row to take the first set. While Tabilo did show some fightback in the second set, leveling the score at 3-3 after going 1-3 down, there was no stopping Jodar, who closed out the set at 6-3.
The match against Tabilo is proof of how far Jodar’s game has developed in the past year, as the Chilean beat the young Spaniard 6-1, 6-2 in their first-ever meeting at Indian Wells. However, Jodar quickly improved his game, and by the time they met in Washington, the Spaniard had defeated Tabilo in a three-set thriller. Since then, the World No. 10 has won six sets in a row against the Chilean, beating him in Cincinnati and Basel before he blew him away in Paris.
As for Turin qualification, Jodar is well placed in the rankings but will need to win a few more matches in the tournament to make it official. He would also love to move up to No. 8 in the world, with Frances Tiafoe ahead of him on 3,390 points. Mathematically, he can do that, but he’ll need a deep run in Paris, possibly reaching the quarter-finals or semi-finals.
Jodar’s focus will now be on his next-round opponent, a former World No. 2 whom the Spaniard recently beat.
Rafael Jodar Will Look to Keep His Winning Momentum in Paris
Jodar has had a sharp rise this season, climbing from outside the Top 100 into the Top 10. He has reached the finals in Washington and Shanghai, won his first ATP title in Marrakech, and put together an outstanding 43-17 record. His improved serve and confident baseline play have helped him compete with top players and bounce back from early-season losses. Now, he’s carrying that form into the final push for a place at the ATP Finals in Turin.
His next test is Casper Ruud, whom he faces in the second round in Paris after beating Tabilo. The Norwegian has the more accomplished résumé, with three Major finals and a former career-high ranking of World No. 2, but Jodar will take confidence from their most recent meeting. At the Shanghai Masters, the Spaniard beat Ruud 4-6, 6-4, 6-3. This will be their second consecutive meeting at a Masters 1000 event.
Ruud opened his Paris campaign with a dominant win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo. He won more than 80 percent of his service points, faced no break points and broke his opponent three times. Jodar, meanwhile, was broken twice against Tabilo but won 58 percent of the return points, a key factor in his victory.
With the fast indoor hard courts, both players will need to make the most of any break-point chances. Ruud has reached three indoor finals in his career, but came into this edition with a 3-7 record at the Paris Masters, giving Jodar another reason to believe he can continue his run.