Is the “Marta Kostyuk theory” actually true? There’s a strange trend following Marta Kostyuk around this year, and it just got another entry. Since the spring, every player who has beaten the Ukrainian at a major tournament has gone on to win the whole thing, and Linda Noskova’s win over her in the US Open round of 16 puts her right in line to continue it.

The pattern started at Roland Garros, where Kostyuk fell in the semifinals to Mirra Andreeva, who lifted the trophy in Paris. Weeks later at Wimbledon, the same script played out on the same stage, this time with Noskova beating Kostyuk in the semis before going on to win the title herself. 

The streak continued in the North American hard court swing too, as Iga Swiatek knocked Kostyuk out in the round of 16 in Toronto before claiming the title, and then Coco Gauff defeated her in the quarterfinal of Cincinnati before winning the title. 

Noskova’s 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 win over Kostyuk in New York, a battle that saw her save three match points serving for it in the third set before finally closing things out, now makes her the only player to have beaten Kostyuk twice during this run. 

It was not even the first time she had needed to survive a scare like this in this tournament. In the previous round against Ann Li, Noskova again held a match point in the second set, only to see the American save it and force a third set, which the Wimbledon champion eventually closed out 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-2.

“I am more than relieved. This match was so tough, emotionally more than physically,” Noskova said in her on-court interview after the Kostyuk win. “We did play for more than two hours, but still the nerves were definitely going since the start. There were a lot of crucial points, and I feel like a huge rock fell off my heart at the end.” 

The run has also helped to pass her previous record in New York. The world No. 6 had never gone past the third round of the US Open before this year, this quarterfinal stands as her best result at Flushing Meadows by a margin.

A far tougher test awaits

The result extends Noskova’s Grand Slam winning streak to 11 matches, a run that began with her Wimbledon title earlier this year. She next faces top seed and two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, a tougher test than anything the theory has faced so far, given the Belarusian has yet to drop a set this tournament.

Aryna Sabalenka’s win against Taylor Townsend was far less comfortable than the scoreline suggested, 6-4, 6-3. The top seed failed to serve out the first set in the first attempt and then even fell behind 1-3 in the second set. She got broken four times throughout the match before she closed out the match, winning five games on the trot. 

“I love tough matches like that, because it was really challenging, and going through tough challenges and overcoming those challenges, it definitely gives you strength and strong belief that you can do it,” Sabalenka said. “So these kind of matches is really like a boost of confidence.” 

The world No. 1 is yet to reach a final of a WTA tournament since winning the Sunshine Double, and her No.1 ranking throne remains under threat with Jessica Pegula, Elena Rybakina and Gauff still alive in the draw. However, she clarified that she is not tracking all of that. 

“I completely separate myself from that, because it’s just guessing,” she said. “I’m just focusing on myself.”

Sabalenka holds a 2-0 advantage over Noskova in the head-to-head record, with the latest meeting coming at this year’s Indian Wells, where the Belarusian blew the Czech off in straight sets, but both those wins came before Noskova became a Grand Slam champion. Sabalenka herself sounded unconcerned with the history. 

“It doesn’t matter who I face, it’s going to be a great battle, great fight, and I’m really excited,” she said.