Jessica Pegula solidified her position in the semifinals of the 2025 WTA Finals with a commanding straight-sets victory over Jasmine Paolini, winning 6-2, 6-3 in her final round-robin match. This crucial win, which followed her earlier three-set triumph against compatriot Coco Gauff and a tough three-set battle with World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, cemented her position as one of the top two players in the Stefanie Graf Group and sent her into the tournament’s final four.

With her own fate sealed, the tennis world turned its attention to the upcoming match between the group’s other two players, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka, a high-stakes encounter that would determine who would join Pegula in the semifinals.

As reported by Tennis Channel on YouTube, during her on-court interview, Jessica Pegula made her feelings clear about this upcoming match and how she would want its outcome to be in her favor. “Yeah, I think you’re cheering, like sometimes you’re not really paying attention. You’re like, I don’t care. I won, like you’re just moving on, but I think here you pay attention a little bit more. So yeah, I’m probably gonna be watching.” 

This candid admission revealed a shift from a player’s typical mentality of moving on after their own work is done to that of a spectator with a vested interest. Her comment underscored the unique nature of the round-robin format, where a player’s path is directly influenced by the results of their competitors. Pegula confirmed that she would be closely monitoring the result that directly impacted her own draw in the next round.

So, what does the head-to-head look like? If Sabalenka and Pegula end up facing each other in the semifinals, it’s worth noting that Sabalenka has the upper hand in their 11 matchups so far, boasting a 72.7% win rate with eight victories under her belt. When we check out the matchups between Pegula and Gauff, it’s pretty tight since Pegula has a slight edge with just one more win, leading 4-3 in their encounters.

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Pegula’s vested interest was rooted in the complex qualification scenarios that defined the final day of group play. The match between defending champion Coco Gauff and world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will be a true knockout clash, with the winner earning the second semifinal spot from the group alongside Pegula. This intricate web of possibilities gave Pegula a clear strategic reason to be watching, as her upcoming opponent would be determined by the result. However, last time Pegula faced off against Gauff, it really left the American feeling pretty frustrated.

Jessica Pegula took over the court against Coco Gauff

This was the seventh time Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff faced off, and it was their second matchup this season. Pegula, as cool as a cucumber, broke down Gauff’s flow, making rallies feel like tricky puzzles and highlighting patterns that Gauff would later confess were her downfall. After losing 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-2, Gauff didn’t shy away. Instead, she tackled the truth directly, a quality that really shows her growth this season.

“It’s one of those matches where you have your game plan, but you have to be able to adjust because she might know my game plan already. Obviously, a little frustrated with the serve today. Overall, it was a tough match for me. Jess played well, and I thought she was playing a bit smarter than she was when we played in Wuhan,” Gauff said, reflecting on her WTA Finals loss.

So, for Pegula, this was a really big win. So, she didn’t win her next match against Aryna Sabalenka, but then she bounced back and took down Jasmine Paolini. Now, we just have to wait and see who she’ll be up against in the semis!