One of the best things that you can do as a great athlete is to know when to stop. And while it’s not a retirement for him, the world No. 1, Jannik Sinner, understands that this is also not the right time for him to return to the court. The theory makes sense. After all, if he hastens his recovery to save his spot from Alexander Zverev, who has seen his points pile up in the absence of tennis’ Big Two, or just to please his fans no matter how much he cherishes them, it could put him in a much worse situation. But seemingly, things have still taken a downward turn for him.

Sinner arrived at the Lombard capital on Friday for Milan Fashion Week for Gucci. While it is his usual commitment every year, what many focused on was the way he walked after he had just announced his withdrawal from the China Open. And he was walking normally. A few days in, though, we have some news that could change the trajectory of his return.

So far, Sinner had not revealed what prognosis he had. But journalist Gabriele Parpiglia recently revealed that he is suffering from iliotibial band syndrome.

“The iliotibial band is a strip of fibrous tissue that is thick, strong, and not very elastic,” Parpiglia stated. “It originates in the pelvis, runs down the entire outer side of the thigh, and attaches to the tibia, just below the knee. It acts like a steel cable, helping to stabilise the leg.

“The problem occurs just above the knee. There, the band passes over a bony prominence of the femur, the lateral epicondyle. Every time the knee bends and straightens, the band slides over it until the tissue between the fascia and the bone becomes inflamed. That’s why we describe it as ‘extra-articular’: the problem is not inside the knee. It is outside, on the outer side.”

While knowing that Sinner’s injury isn’t an internal issue is positive, there are also some concerns.

The first being that the Italian is not even considering the surgery. His rehabilitation so far has been with conservative methods like rest, physiotherapy, and extensive work on the hips and glutes. He is also going through physical therapy and could opt for injections before gradually returning to normal training. But if these options don’t work out, he will have to resort to his final option: surgery. The way it’s looking, while going under the needle is a remote chance, it could be the only option left.

Jannik Sinner appeared at Milan Fashion Week but went directly to La Madonnina clinic after the show to get himself checked out, where the real issue in his right knee was found. He has also visited multiple medical clinics to diagnose the problem. But there haven’t been any positive results so far. And if he undergoes surgery, it will only push his return timeline further away.

Predicting Sinner’s return timeline if he undergoes surgery

Honestly, the Italian’s return timeline is not known even now. Reports indicate he may have to withdraw from the Shanghai Masters as well. If this does happen, then Sinner’s return will be pushed to late October. He has dropped 1,950 ranking points so far and will lose 500 more due to his withdrawal from the China Open after winning the tournament last year.

A withdrawal from the Shanghai Masters won’t hurt Sinner a lot, as he exited the tournament in the second round last year. But there can be consequences if he pulls out of either the Vienna Open or the Paris Masters because the 25-year-old won both last year. A withdrawal from either of these events will also result in Sinner having barely any match practice before the ATP Finals in November.

Meanwhile, Zverev has been threatening Sinner’s ranking already.

Alexander Zverev has put Jannik Sinner’s ranking under serious threat

The German has closed the gap to 1,810 points and can even dethrone Sinner if he has a superb Asian swing.

Unlike Sinner, Zverev is likely to feature at the China Open. He won’t be under a lot of pressure either, as he exited the tournament in the quarterfinals last year. The same goes with the Shanghai Masters, where Zverev was eliminated in the Round of 32.

While he gained 2,000 points in the rankings due to his triumph at the US Open, Sinner dropped a lot because he had reached the final last year. But while Zverev may be looking like the frontrunner to take over the rankings at the moment, it is far from an easy task.

The World No. 2 doesn’t just have to perform brilliantly in the upcoming tournaments, but will also have to rely on Sinner’s participation. If the Italian returns in the Asian swing and makes a deep run in any tournament, it will be unlikely that Zverev will reach the No. 1 spot.