Since September 12, Jannik Sinner has been back on the tennis court, taking on an increasingly heavy workload to return to his best form. But three days ago, we all got a report that made his comeback seem like a mirage.

He had already withdrawn from the China Open. Then, journalist Gabriele Parpiglia revealed that Sinner’s iliotibial band syndrome might need surgery before he could return to the court. The probability was thin, yet it meant that we won’t see the world No. 1 for even longer, putting his standing at risk against Alexander Zverev. However, things have finally looked up, and the Italian is already eyeing his next tournament.

His team is set to make a final call within hours on whether he will travel to Shanghai for the Masters 1000 event beginning on October 5, according to reports by Sky Sports Italia.

Sinner has not played a competitive match since July 12. In between, he missed the Canadian Open, Cincinnati, the US Open, and just when it looked like the reigning champion would participate in the ongoing China Open in Beijing, he announced his withdrawal from there, too. But what looks like rash decisions for the Italian is seemingly a well-thought-out strategy by his team.

The world No. 1 has been training in Monte Carlo with growing intensity, but his latest session on Wednesday failed to resolve doubts about his participation. Sinner has recovered from the extra-articular tendon inflammation in his right knee that first forced him to retire following his Wimbledon final win, and his rehabilitation program, which ended on September 12, has continued to train smoothly since then. Now, he and his team are evaluating his condition.

So far, they have allowed him as much court time as possible instead of keeping him in a controlled setting, and his condition is reportedly getting better day by day. But as I said, that withdrawal fits a broader, deliberately conservative pattern this season.

Sinner didn’t want to risk aggravating the injury. According to the report, that strategy has worked till now even though it cost him a Grand Slam and a number of matches. Yet, with minimal information out in the world about the best tennis player’s condition, everyone’s palms are itching to know more.

Former world No. 7 calls out Sinner’s team over lack of information revealed

Nobody would deny that in the absence of the Big Two, things on the ranking table have shuffled more than we would’ve liked. Just take Alexander Zverev, for instance, who has climbed to the No. 2 rank in Carlos Alcaraz’s absence. And seeing how the gap is tightening between Sinner and Sasha, Corrado Barazzutti wants to make sure what is going on with the Italian to begin with.

“Let’s say I’m worried, yes, even though I don’t have a lot of information,” Barazzutti said earlier. “There’s talk of extra-articular tendon inflammation. The problem is that we haven’t seen him on court for almost three months, and when a player like him has been absent for that long, it’s normal for doubts to arise.

“What I don’t understand is why they can’t provide a medical report and simply say: this is the problem, he’ll be back in three months, in four months. I understand that privacy is a concern, but since we’re talking about the world No. 1, a slightly clearer statement would at least give everyone an idea. Otherwise, it’s just fuelling speculation.”

His concern isn’t wrong. Sinner last played at Wimbledon and only appeared in public at Milan Fashion Week to fulfill his duties for Gucci as one of the brand ambassadors. Then, he looked just fine walking. However, he had already announced that his body was not where he wanted it to be to fly to Beijing. Now, things are cutting too close as Zverev is present at the China Open while the best Sinner can try is to appear in Shanghai.

Is the world No. 1 crown in danger?

The good news is that the ranking math behind all of this remains firmly in Sinner’s favor for now, even if the margins are tightening. Heading into Beijing, he held a 1,370-point lead over his closest challenger, Zverev. Sinner will drop 500 points from his title run there a year ago, but he remains confident he will not be overtaken, even in the worst-case scenario of Zverev winning both Beijing and Shanghai. 

In that specific scenario, the Italian would only need to reach the round of 16 in Shanghai, that is, if he decides to play the Masters event to stay ahead of the German.

Maintaining No. 1 place at the end of the season is another, and more challenging, question, though. 

Between the final Masters 1000 event in Paris and the ATP Finals in Turin, the points Sinner stands to lose dwarf what Zverev has at risk. Here is the breakdown:

That nearly 2000-point gap is the reason why Sinner risks losing his world No .1 crown to Zverev, as he has more points to protect than him and that too after recovering from injury. 

Right now the only question is: will Sinner play Shanghai?

His team has been reviewing the latest on-court test results, and the decision is near as they weigh these findings against the broader goal of preserving months of careful, gradual recovery rather than risking it all for one more tournament. Since the knee issue arose, he and his team have been deliberate in their decisions; there’s little reason to hurry now.