It was back in 2022, when a 19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz was chasing his first Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows. And then came the moment: his final serve, left untouched by Casper Ruud. Alcaraz dropped to the ground, hands over his face, almost in disbelief. He knew it. In that instant, he hadn’t just won a title, he had made history, becoming the youngest World No. 1 in ATP Rankings history.

Ever since that moment, Carlos Alcaraz has been chasing one thing: staying on top. And when Jannik Sinner stepped up to challenge him, fans quickly found their new Big-2. Since then, it’s been a constant tug-of-war between the two for the No. 1 spot.

Last year, when Alcaraz reclaimed the top ranking at the US Open, it felt like everything had come full circle. But now, the story seems to be shifting again, with that No. 1 crown slowly slipping from his grasp.

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Carlos Alcaraz has started his title defense with a win over clay-court specialist Sebastian Baez in the R32 of the Monte-Carlo Masters. The Spaniard won the match comfortably in straight sets. This was an important win for the top seed, as it sets the tone for the rest of the clay swing after a troubled Sunshine Double. 

After getting his 16-match winning streak broken in Indian Wells by Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals, followed by an early exit at the Miami Open, many doubted him losing the coveted world No. 1 position. With world No. 2 Jannik Sinner winning the Sunshine Double, it makes it even harder for the seven-time Grand Slam champion to retain his top spot. Just like everyone else, even Alcaraz has his doubts.

“To be honest, I’m gonna lose the World No. 1 spot. I don’t know if it’s going to be in this tournament or the next one. I’m defending a bunch of points that it’s going to be really difficult to defend all. Even if I defend them, Jannik is going to add some points in these tournaments that he doesn’t have to defend any points in these tournaments,” the Spaniard stated in the on-court interview after the match. 

The race to the top is extremely tight between the two players. The Italian is just trailing by 1190 points to the 22-year-old, which can be easily overtaken during the course of the clay season. 

“So I will try to play my best, and let’s see what happens. But obviously, of course, for me, the No. 1 is not in my mind right now, I’m just trying to feel the best way or as good as I can on a clay court, and let’s see how it’s going to be, the clay swing.” Alcaraz added. 

Sinner has also advanced to the R16 with a comprehensive straight-set win against home favorite Ugo Humbert. He will be potentially facing the 16th seed, Francisco Cerundolo, in the third round of the Monte-Carlo masters. 

Can we get the first Alcaraz-Sinner battle of the year at the Monte-Carlo finals, which will be their astonishing 9th tour final?

Will Jannik Sinner dethrone Carlos Alcaraz to regain the world No. 1 spot?

Carlos Alcaraz’s dream run in the 2025 clay season has helped him earn the points to snatch the World No. 1 spot from Sinner. The Spaniard had won Monte-Carlo, Rome, and Roland Garros last year. This means, he has 4000 points to defend. And, if he replicates his best clay court tennis across every tournament this season, it’s almost inevitable for him to lose the world No. 1 to Jannik Sinner.

Other points he is carrying from last year are 330 points from reaching the final of the Barcelona Open. At the start of the Indian Wells, he had a comfortable cushion of 3150 points over Sinner, but with the latter winning in Tennis Paradise and Miami Gardens and no points to defend from last year at the clay swing has every chance of dethroning Alcaraz. 

The maths is grueling for the Spaniard. Just a quarterfinal exit in Monaco and a deep run by the four-time Grand Slam champion is enough for Sinner to regain his No. 1 spot. Furthermore, he has decided to play more clay court tournaments this year, which will allow him to go ahead in the race. 

The two have clearly dominated the sport in the past few years, and a trend that’s not gonna end anytime soon. Currently, they have shared the No. 1 position for 132 weeks since 2022. Alcaraz became world No. 1 after his 2022 US Open victory, and Sinner followed him in 2024, ending the year as No. 1. They both are tied at 66-weeks on the top spot, with 13590 and 12,400, respectively. The player who is in third position, Alexander Zverev, is far beyond on 5205. The rest of the tour has to do a lot of catching up if they even want to close in on the two spearheads. 

While Alcaraz is not worried about retaining points, rather getting his preparation set for the rest of the clay season. His camp had shared earlier that if things had gone well in Miami, they would have skipped Monte Carlo, but after the early troubles there, a preparation tournament was mandatory for the defending Roland Garros champion. 

Even though Alcaraz is not focused on losing his spot to Sinner, he will have a target on his back, which can motivate him to put his best foot forward. Whether his rhythm arrives in time to produce a dream run on red dirt to keep the gap small or Sinner will dethrone him is a question that will define the next two months of men’s tennis.