The last time Leon Marchand was in Paris, it was for the Olympics, where, four gold medals later, he’d sparked comparisons to Michael Phelps. Nearly two years later, he had a chance to return to the Parisian waters and seal his first senior European medal at the European Aquatics Championships 2026 this week. But the chances of that continue to look bleak.

As reported by SwimSwam, Marchand’s chances of competing in the 400 individual medley, the event in which he holds the world record of 4:02.50, remain uncertain due to the adductor injury he’s currently suffering from.

However, Marchand is expected to make a decision closer to day one in Paris. After all, his return to this European stage was going to be significant. The four-time Olympic champion was preparing to race in front of a home crowd again. Instead, the French star is now unsure whether his body will even allow him to take the blocks.

The problem? His left adductor.

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Marchand first felt pain during the French National Championships in June and withdrew from the 200m breaststroke final. He then pulled out of the remainder of the meet. After making progress in rehabilitation, he aggravated the same injury during training.

“I made good progress in the first few weeks, and after three weeks, I started swimming breaststroke again,” Marchand told L’Equipe. “And I slightly re-injured myself three weeks after the French Championships, in the same spot, my pectineus.”

For Marchand, the timing could hardly be worse. He had revealed earlier this year that breaking his own world record in Paris was one of his targets. Now, instead of thinking about how fast he can swim, he is thinking about whether he can swim at all.

And this setback has already ended his hopes of competing in the 200m breaststroke at the European Championships as his pectineus wasn’t strong enough to do a breaststroke set. “I’ve ruled out the 200m breaststroke at the European Championships, and the 400m individual medley is uncertain because it’s the first day. I’m a bit afraid of re-injuring my adductor and having my week ruined.”

However, there’s also a ray of hope. Marchand’s still en route to compete in the 200 butterfly and 400 freestyle at the upcoming event. “I’m handling (the injury) as best I can,” Marchand told L’Equipe.

The decision, Marchand explained, could come down to the very last moment.

“I’ll wait for the MRI results too. But the decision will be based more on the clinical assessment and how I feel. I’m giving myself until the day before the competition to decide.”

It is not the position an athlete would want to be in before a major championship. “It’s not easy to go to the European Championships when you’re not at 100%,” he said. Asked whether he had thought about withdrawing completely, his answer was simple: “Many times!”

Still, the injury has not been entirely without a silver lining. Unable to rely on his breaststroke and usual underwater work, Marchand has spent more time developing other parts of his swimming. It’ll be interesting to see if he can take part at the European Aquatics Championships or not.

Leon Marchand had previously set a goal for himself at the European Championships

The European Championships have been an unusual blank spot on Marchand’s otherwise remarkable résumé.

His only European medals came at the junior level, where he picked up two bronzes in 2019. He later finished 14th in the 200m butterfly semifinal and 28th in the 200m breaststroke preliminaries at the 2020 European Championships, held in 2021 because of the pandemic.

Marchand then skipped the 2022 and 2024 editions, making this year’s championship his first real opportunity to add a senior European medal to his collection.

And the setting makes the occasion even more special…

Just two years ago, Paris watched Marchand become the face of the 2024 Olympics. He won four individual gold medals in front of an ecstatic home crowd, including victories in the 200m breaststroke and 200m butterfly on the same night.

Back in April, Marchand had spoken confidently about attacking his 400m IM world record, which he set at the 2023 World Championships in Fukuoka by clocking 4:02.50 and taking down Michael Phelps’ long-standing mark.

“The idea is to beat my best times,” Marchand said at the time. “If I qualify, it would be a race where I’d like to break my record.” He even described the prospect of breaking the record in Paris as “fantastic.” But those ambitions now have to wait.

For the moment, Marchand is taking things one step at a time. The 400m IM remains uncertain, the 200m breaststroke is already off the schedule, and his body will ultimately decide what happens when the competition begins.