The 2 3/4-length victory in the Grade 2 Shawnee Stakes at Churchill Downs seems impressive, but Bob Baffert almost didn’t run Splendora. He should have trusted his gut sooner. The Hall of Fame trainer relied on his experience, trusted his instincts, and read the horse’s signals, which paid dividends. Splendora earned $158,100, marking Baffert’s first graded stakes win in weeks after a recent drought.

The 5-year-old mare was on the verge of being scratched before Baffert had a change of heart. “She showed up today. She didn’t show up last time and was a little flat,” Baffert said. “I think she’s the type of horse that needs to be here a little bit and not run off the plane. I was debating on running her here or taking her to the June 5 Phipps at Saratoga. It dried up here. She didn’t like the mud too much last week, and that’s why I was debating on whether to run her or not. Today, the real Splendora showed up.”

“I was just on the fence a little bit; I wasn’t sure. I let the horses tell me, and she told me the last two days, ‘Put me in, Coach.'” This was enough for Bob to let the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner take the field.

Between May 25 and May 28, Baffert wavered publicly, first telling BloodHorse he was uncertain, then leaning toward scratch when speaking to Daily Racing Form. But then Mother Nature showed grace. The track dried out, and Splendora’s demeanor shifted. Baffert noticed.

Splendora showed renewed energy in workouts two days before race day, giving Baffert confidence. The Saturday win counted as Splendora’s fourth in graded company and moved her record to 14: 8-4-0. She moved her career earnings to $1,357,700. Her 2025 Breeders’ Cup title and two graded wins earlier this year made the Shawnee decision even more critical.

She arrived off a flat fourth-place run, beaten 10 1/2 lengths, in the seven-furlong Derby City Distaff (G1) on the Kentucky Derby undercard. That fourth-place finish typified Baffert’s recent struggles, making Splendora’s win a rare bright spot.

Bob Baffert’s Triple Crown Slump

Earlier this month, he targeted a record-breaking seventh Kentucky Derby victory. For this, Baffert had two horses to the starting gate: Potente and Litmus Test. Unfortunately, neither managed to live up to the Hall of Famer’s expectations. Potente was a highly publicized $2.4 million yearling purchase and had the pedigree engineered for the distance. However, the Grade 2 San Felipe winner finished in a disappointing 12th place.

While Litmus Test had 30-1 longshot odds, the lack of prep-race form and consistency meant Bob Baffert got no return. For the first time since 2022, Baffert had no horse in the Preakness Stakes. His undefeated colt, Crude Velocity, generated heavy Triple Crown buzz after a dominant, flashy win in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard. But Bob Baffert made a judgment call to not risk the colt back onto the track just two weeks after that exhausting effort.

For the same reason, Bob Baffert has decided to officially withdraw Potente from Belmont Stakes consideration. Thus, wounds and lack of form are the main reasons for his triple crown slump. That’s why the decision to let Splendora race was quite difficult, which paid off.