The NFL’s grip on television might be finally facing it’s biggest test yet. The U.S Justice Department is now taking a closer look at how the league sells its broadcast rights. At the heart of the scrutiny lies a simple question with massive implications: Are fans forced to pay more then they should to watch games? What has long been accepted as the normal price to pay being a football watcher could now be at the centre of a major antitrust battle.

“This is about affordability and creating an even playing field for providers,” a government official shared with ABC News, meanwhile the Wall Street Journal, which first reported this issue, mentioned that the investigation’s nature and scope are currently unknown.

Here’s the thing: the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 has ties to it. The league antitrust exemption brings stability. It binds the television rights of all the 32 franchises together and sells them as one package. Without it, there would be a rift, as each team would have the right to sell TV rights. While some franchises, like the Dallas Cowboys and the New England Patriots, which have global fans, would make a lot of profits, others wouldn’t. Similarly, it could also pose a problem in the salary cap.

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Additionally, under the Sports Broadcasting, a provision permits local game blackouts, a rule that still extends to the league’s out-of-market subscription packages. However, the NFL itself moved away from enforcing local TV blackouts after the 2014 season, ending the policy that once blocked broadcasts within a 75-mile radius of a team’s market if tickets weren’t sold out at least 72 hours before kickoff.

Last month, Republican Sen. Mike Lee, chair of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights, sent a letter to the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission requesting a review of the antitrust exemption policy. His math was simply, to watch every NFL games during the past season, football fans spent almost $1,000 on cable and streaming subscriptions.

The NFL maintains that they are the most fan-friendly league, with almost 87% of its games available on local TV. They also said it was more than many other sports that have migrated to paid platforms and services. However, $1,000 for one season is a lot to pay. Plus, back in 2024, a jury in the U.S. District Court in Los Angeles determined that the NFL had breached antitrust laws through its handling of out-of-market Sunday afternoon games on a premium subscription platform, ultimately awarding a staggering $4.7 billion in damages.

But in a class-action lawsuit, a federal judge overturned the verdict. It was because they found out about the flawed methodologies of two witnesses for the subscribers. Ideally, that needed to be excluded.

Coming back to the new investigation at hand, many even believe it to be a ploy by FOX to extract more money through broadcasting. Those are speculations. According to Mike Florio from Pro Football Talk, FOX is trying to maximize the output “in the remaining years of contracts that can be terminated after the 2029 season.” Somewhere down the line, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell may also be eyeing the same thing – a major payday for the NFL.

This government scrutiny comes as the league is reportedly positioning itself for its next media rights negotiation, with analysts projecting a future goal of $15.9 billion annually.

The NFL may land a $15.9 billion deal in the near future

The NFL’s 11-year deal with Amazon, ESPN, FOX, NBC, and CBS will run until 2032. But the contracts have a clause that allows the league to opt out with most of its partners in 2029. With the NBA having secured a $76 billion deal for 11 years, which is almost 160% increase from their last contract, Goodell does not want to wait to begin the talks, despite three years still remaining. Naturally, with such haste, it raises questions about the structure of the contract the league is looking for.

The league’s current media dominance is built on partnerships with a mix of traditional broadcasters like CBS, FOX, and NBC, and streaming giants like Amazon, all of whom contribute to the $110 billion total. At that point, it was the largest deal in sports history. According to the current rights, FOX pays about $2.2 billion, with CBS coming in at second at $2.1 billion. NBC follows with $2 billion, and Amazon $1 billion for Thursday Night Football, along with Netflix’s Christmas Day package and additional agreements like Sunday Ticket and select games tied to YouTube.

Now, they are once again trying to recreate it. This time, however, the league is targeting a value nearly $6 billion higher annually. Previously, it was $10 billion per year, and now Goodell is looking at $15.9 billion potentially. It is a 58% jump from last time.

“What we focus on is ‘How do we reach the broadest number of people, on every broadcast? How do we make an event out of that?’ We select our partners in part for that reason,” Goodell said at the commissioner’s annual Super Bowl press conference. “Economics are obviously part of that, the value that’s created. But at the end of the day, we want partners who are going to broaden our audience.”

The NFL commissioner already has a plan laid out. With the NBA signing such a massive deal, the NFL is likely to follow next.