TJ Watt isn’t playing games, and neither are the Steelers. When Pittsburgh’s All-Pro edge rusher skipped mandatory minicamp in June, it wasn’t just another offseason no-show. It was a message. Watt wants a new deal – one that matches his game-wrecking production. And he’s willing to flex his leverage. The Steelers know the drill: Back in 2021, Watt reported to camp but refused to practice until his extension got done days before Week 1. History could repeat itself if negotiations drag on. Mike Tomlin claims optimism, “two sides want to get this done“, but training camp starts July 23, and the clock is ticking.

Guarantees, length, total value – every detail remains unsettled. The stalemate grows heavier each day. The latest rumor about TJ Watt’s future in Pittsburgh should come with a disclaimer. Because if Steelers fans have learned anything, it’s that front office promises don’t always stick. When the @NFLRumors account insisted “The Pittsburgh Steelers have no INTENTION of trading all-pro edge TJ Watt,” it felt like watching a rerun. Just two months back, the organization swore George Pickens wasn’t going anywhere, right up until he was traded to Dallas.

Now history might be repeating itself as Watt’s contract negotiations drag into the dog days of summer. Reports suggest the two sides remain far apart, with Brooke Pryor confirming “TJ Watt wants more guaranteed money than the Steelers are currently trying to offer him.” Yet the only thing more unpredictable than these negotiations is Pittsburgh’s front office, which operates with poker-faced silence until suddenly making franchise-altering moves. 

The Steelers have every reason to keep Watt. He’s the soul of their defense, but they’ve also shown they won’t be held hostage by contract demands. With training camp looming on July 23, all eyes will be on whether Watt reports, whether the Steelers budge, and whether this latest rumor proves true or goes the way of so many other hollow assurances. Until then, Pittsburgh’s favorite offseason pastime continues: trying to decipher fact from fiction in the Steelers’ rumor mill.

But here’s the twist in this high-stakes contract drama. No matter how this standoff ends, TJ Watt is about to get paid like few defenders ever have.

TJ Watt set to reset the market?

The TJ Watt contract saga isn’t about if he’ll get paid, but where, and for how much. According to Steelers insider Mark Kaboly, the team has taken the unusual step of quietly gauging interest in their star pass rusher. [T]hey are obviously inquiring to see what that might be,” Kaboly revealed on 93.7 The Fan. Though he later tempered his statements on X by claiming “there have been no inquiries made to other teams about trading him, according to sources.”

Yet even as trade rumors swirled, the real story lurked beneath. Watt’s next deal won’t just reset the edge rusher market. It could shatter the entire non-QB pay scale. Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport put it bluntly: “What isn’t up for debate is that someone is going to pay him—and when they do, his deal will rival (or surpass) Myles Garrett’s $40 million a season.” The projection? A seismic three-year, $121 million pact with $81 million guaranteed, numbers that would dethrone Ja’Marr Chase’s $40.25 million/year receiver deal.

Watt’s demand is simple: top dollar for top dominance (7 Pro Bowls, 4 All-Pros, 2021 DPOY). But Pittsburgh’s hesitation is logical. He turns 31 next season, and his 2024 tape, while elite, showed faint decline. The Steelers prefer short-term bets for aging stars; Watt’s camp wants a four-year commitment like Chase and Garrett got.

This isn’t just haggling, it’s a philosophical clash. Pay Watt like the face of the franchise through 2028, or risk him becoming another team’s $45M/year problem. Kaboly’s trade exploration proves Pittsburgh’s willingness to walk away. But if they do? Some owner might hand Watt a blank check before his flight lands.