On September 9, 2021, Steelers’ OLB T.J. Watt marched right into Art Rooney II’s office, but if you think it was for a feud, think again. Before the abrupt walk-in, Pittsburgh extended a $112M/ 4 years with $80M guaranteed deal to the 2017 first-round pick out of Wisconsin. And as fate would have it, he told Rooney they had a deal. And then in the fashion like he always has, excused himself to go and workout before taking on the Buffalo Bills the next Sunday. Interestingly, the contract did not become a highlight for the football world just because of the numbers. Reportedly, Watt overruled his agents who wanted to get more money for him and signed the deal all by himself. Now we can see why he hurried to shake Rooney’s hands, but we can also see why his agents saw him bringing in more greens.

Just a year before his monster contract, Watt compiled a league-high record of 15 sacks. Not just that, he also became a menace for the QBs, recording 27 quarterback hits and 33 quarterback hurries in 2020. Along with skills like understanding the leverage and quickness, the linebacker proved why he was the first overall pick in 2017. In fact, all those years later, his respect in the Steelers pack has not reduced. But with only one year more in the contract before he becomes a free agent, how will Mike Tomlin and Co. match to his expectations? Especially when another team already set the scale way too high with another star. 

Very recently, Myles Garrett inked a massive $160 million extension with Cleveland. Adding to that is the $122.8 million guaranteed. At the same time, their discussion with their 31-year-old icon is revolving around $40M over three years. For the Steelers, it’s déjà vu all over again. And as Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Just don’t see the Steelers moving on from Watt unless the negotiation gets really ugly,” he answers the question of what will really matter when the day comes for Rooney and T.J. to sit down.

Sitting down with various people on Tuesday, Ray answered a few questions surrounding the franchise. A reported inquired, “Does a 3 yr extension for 120m get the job done for TJ? Spreads the cap hit out into 29 but keeps him here at 40 AAV through 28 season?” For Fittipaldo, the answer was quite simple and straight. “It’s going to be about the guaranteed money. The Steelers likely have to surpass what Garrett got in guarantees for that deal to get done.”

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ reported $120 million offer over three years? Just pocket change compared to the real game being played. Even Ray agreed, “Unfortunately for the Steelers the Browns set the market. It’s not really a matter of whether he’s worth it or not. It’s the business side of football. You can make an argument many of the top-paid QBs aren’t worth the money they make, but the market is set. Either you pay or you move on to another player. And I just don’t see the Steelers moving on from Watt unless the negotiation gets really ugly.”

Watt’s 2025 cap hit sits at $30.4M, but he becomes a free agent in 2026—and the Steelers know if he walks, the foundation of their defense crumbles. T.J. isn’t just the Steelers’ defensive backbone; he’s a walking cheat code. With 108 career sacks (second-fastest to 100 ever), 33 forced fumbles, and a 2024 season where he led the NFL with six strips, the man’s résumé reads like a Ubisoft glitch.

Yet, whispers of decline linger after an 11.5-sack year—his worst since 2020. Critics argue Pittsburgh should trade him. Fans? They’re split like a zone defense. But letting him walk would be like trading away a Super Bowl blueprint mid-build. Watt’s current deal ($21.05 M base, $30.4 M cap hit) expires after 2025. Garrett’s $40 M/year contract looms like a highlight reel on loop. For Steelers GM Omar Khan, this isn’t just negotiation—it’s therapy. Pay Watt $40 M+ annually or watch Cleveland’s D-line smirk all the way to the playoffs. So, the translation for Fittipaldo’s warning: $125 M+ guaranteed. Or? Bust! So, let’s break it down:

Then there’s the other half of the Steelers’ offseason drama: Aaron Rodgers. The future Hall of Famer is reportedly “verbally committed” to joining Pittsburgh on a one-year, $10 million deal. That’s right—a four-time MVP on a discount, potentially suiting up at Acrisure.

Mike Tomlin’s phone buzzes with a Green Bay area code

Meanwhile, in a twist ripped from Ballers, Mike Tomlin’s phone lit up this spring. On the line? Aaron Rodgers, fresh off a Jets implosion and wrestling with demons heavier than a blitzing nose tackle. “I’ve been upfront with them… If you need to move on, by all means,” Rodgers admitted, but here’s the plot twist: despite the chaos, sources say he has verbally committed to Pittsburgh, with plans to suit up for training camp.

Why the Steelers? It’s not just about The Terrible Towel or the Rooney mystique. Tomlin’s rep as a player’s coach—think Bill Belichick’s IQ with a DJ Khaled vibe—has Rodgers hooked. “He’s probably the best of a lot of cheap options in terms of his mastery of the game combined with the ability to still do some of what he used to physically,” the Post-Gazette’s Brian Batko noted, highlighting Rodgers’ pre-snap wizardry and the freedom Tomlin’s offering. Think of it this way: Rodgers isn’t joining to coast—he’s joining to win.

So, here’s the Steelers’ equation: retain T.J. Watt with a $160M+ extension and land Aaron Rodgers on a short-term deal. Lose Watt, and the defense folds. Miss on Rodgers, and the offense sputters again. Nail both? Suddenly, the AFC North is in play—and a deep playoff run doesn’t feel like fantasy.

Pittsburgh hasn’t lifted the Lombardi since 2008. But if Omar Khan pulls this off, Mike Tomlin could find himself coaching the most balanced and dangerous Steelers team of the post-Roethlisberger era. Training camp is around the corner. The pressure’s on. And in true Pittsburgh fashion, the margin for error is razor-thin.