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Essentials Inside The Story

  • Massive investments backfire as franchise cornerstones crumble under pressure.
  • A castoff quarterback watches his replacement hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
  • Front offices scramble to replace stars who vanished in twenty-five.

The 2025 season has concluded. In a drama-filled season, there were plenty of breakout players who took over the league. From Jaxson Smith-Njigba to the emergence of Drake Maye, plenty of stars cemented themselves as stars.

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But what about the players who did the opposite? The stars who went into 2025 with high expectations but were major disappointments. From second-year players expected to take the next step to early fantasy football picks that made little impact.

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These are the biggest disappointing 2025 seasons from the NFL’s biggest stars.

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10. QB Michael Penix Jr.

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Team Record: (8-9)
Regular season stats: 166/276, 60.1 Cmp%, 1,982 Yds, 9 TD, 3 INT, 4 Fmb

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Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr was set to take over as the franchise quarterback. Despite a small sample size in his rookie season, many expected Penix to take the next step in his second year.

Surrounded by talent, the second-year quarterback couldn’t find consistency. Through nine games, Penix threw for 1,982 yards and 9 touchdowns. He did keep the ball out of harm’s way, however, throwing only 3 interceptions.

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Penix eventually would find himself on the bench as veteran Kirk Cousins took over.

Penix’s lack of development is disappointing in many ways. Atlanta is full of talent on offense and has built up their defense over the years. While it was a shock for the Falcons to sign Cousins to a significant contract and also use a high pick on Penix, the hope was that Cousins would be vital to Penix’s development.

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The NFC South was wide open up until the final week of the season. If Penix performed at even a mediocre level while running back Bijan Robinson continued to take over games, the Falcons would’ve likely made it to the playoffs.

Instead, Atlanta is asking if they have a capable QB1 on their roster.

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Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 3,600 Yds, 14 TD, 8 INT

9. RB Alvin Kamara

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Team Record: (6-11)
Regular season stats: 131 ATT, 471 Rush Yds, 1 TD, 3.6 YPC, 33 Rec, 186 Rec Yds

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New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara was set for a big year.

Once the Saints signed head coach Kellen Moore, the hope was that he would be able to bring aspects from Saquon Barkley‘s historic season in Philadelphia to New Orleans.

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But it never panned out. Through 11 games, Kamara only logged 471 rushing yards and one touchdown on 3.6 yards per carry. Even more surprisingly, the career receiving back only added 186 yards through the air.

Kamara suffered a knee injury in Week 12 and missed the rest of the season.

The veteran running back’s recent seasons haven’t been what we were used to, but he still made an impact. But in 2025, Kamara was a no-show.

The Saints’ interior offensive line was one of the worst units in the league, but we’ve seen Kamara make plays out of nothing before. It’s possible that Kamara’s age is finally catching up to him, and he no longer has that burst he once had.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 560 Rush Yds, 3 TD, 3.8 YPC, 40 Rec, 270 Rec Yds

8. QB Tua Tagovailoa

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Team Record: (7-10)
Regular season stats: 260/384, 67.7 Cmp%, 2,660 Yds, 20 TD, 15 INT, 8 Fmb

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has had an up-and-down career. Through his third and fourth seasons, he seemed to be putting it all together. These seasons prompted the Dolphins to extend him on a four-year, $212.4 million contract.

His first season under contract was plagued with injuries, specifically to his head. Many questioned if Tagovailoa would be capable of playing football at a high level due to the significant amount of head injuries, but the young quarterback emphasized his desire to return.

In 2025, Tagovailoa had one of his worst seasons as a pro. Statistically, he threw for his third-most touchdowns in a season(20). But it was his high turnover rate and inability to push the ball downfield that stood out.

The Dolphins ranked in the bottom-10 in both yards and points per game, despite having standouts in WR Jaylen Waddle and RB De’Von Achane. Tagovailoa’s struggles would eventually lead to his benching in favor of rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers for the final three games of the season.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 3,200 Yds, 21 TD, 10 INT

7. QB Justin Fields

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Team Record: (3-14)
Regular season stats: 128/204, 62.7 Cmp%, 1,259 Yds, 7 TD, 1 INT, 4 Fmb, 383 Rush Yds, 4 Rush TD

New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields continues to be a fan favorite. His play style is fun to watch and makes football interesting.

The word “interestingly” seems to follow Fields’ career. He’s had solid at best seasons his whole NFL career, but his physical traits keep teams wondering. After a 5 touchdown 1 interception season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Jets took a shot on the young quarterback, signing him to a two-year, $40 million contract.

Through nine games, Fields was only able to put together 1,259 yards and 7 touchdowns in the air. The dual-threat quarterback added 383 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground. After leading the New York to a 2-7 record, he was benched for veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

After back-to-back seasons of struggle and failing to prove himself, 2025 may have been Fields’s last chance.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 2,600 Yds, 14 TD, 7 INT, 600 Rush Yds, 8 Rush TD

6. RB Bucky Irving

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Team Record: (8-9)
Regular season stats: 173 ATT, 588 Rush Yds, 1 TD, 3.4 YPC, 30 Rec, 277 Rec Yds, 3 Rec TD

Similar to Fields, Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving became a fan favorite during his rookie season

After putting up 1,122 yards as a rookie, Irving responded with a disappointing 588-yard season. While Irving did deal with injuries in 2025, he only recorded 34 fewer touches.

The most significant difference is Irving’s efficiency. As a rookie, he recorded 5.4 yards per carry. In 2025, it dropped by 2.0 to 3.4 yards per carry. A significant drop.

The Buccaneers’ offense as a whole took a step back, likely due to the major changes to their offensive line. From retirements to big injuries, Tampa Bay had to make do with what they could in their protectors.

A combination of an untrustworthy offensive line and compiled injuries made for a disappointing season by Irving and the Buccaneers’ offense.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 1,020 Rush Yds, 7 TD, 4.7 YPC, 67 Rec, 450 Rec Yds

5. QB Geno Smith

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Team Record: (3-14)
Regular season stats: 302/448, 67.4 Cmp%, 3,025
Yds, 19 TD, 17 INT, 4 Fmb

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith‘s career revival with the Seattle Seahawks propelled him into top quarterback discussions. Despite this, Seattle dealt Smith to the Raiders in a trade to reunite him with head coach Pete Caroll.

Smith was coming off a rough season with the Seahawks and was looking to be traded after teammate D.K. Metcalf was dealt to the Steelers. Seattle netted a third-rounder in this deal and signed Sam Darnold in his place.

While Darnold and the Seahawks were out winning a Super Bowl, Smith and the Raiders were heading toward the first overall pick. Smith was a big part of the problem. The veteran signal caller threw for a lackluster 19 touchdowns while throwing 17 interceptions. Nearing a 1:1 ratio.

The Raiders weren’t expected to be a great team, but 3-14 was below expectations. Pairing Smith with star tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty felt like a great formula to get their stars developed. Instead, each had mediocre seasons.

Las Vegas is projected to draft Smith’s replacement with the first overall pick, and the veteran quarterback has been named a cut candidate as he enters the second season of his two-year, $75 million contract.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 3,900 Yds, 22 TD, 13 INT 

4. WR A.J. Brown

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Team Record: (11-6)
Regular season stats: 78 Rec, 1,003 Yds, 7 TD, 64.5 Ctch%

The Philadelphia Eagles fell hard after their Super Bowl win last season. Losing their offensive coordinator proved significant, and drama-filled their season.

One of the season’s biggest disappointments was wide receiver A.J. Brown. While still logging 1,000+ yards, Brown has yet to hit the highs of his back-to-back 1,400-yard+ seasons from 2022-23.

The biggest storyline around his dissapointing 1,003 yard season was Brown’s relationship with quarterback Jalen Hurts. There was plenty of speculation of tension between the two, with many wondering if it was a cause of the veteran receivers’ drop in numbers.

But Brown had his share of issues on the field. From consistent drops to bad on-field demeanor, plenty of parts went into Brown’s disappointing season.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 75 Rec, 1,050 Yds, 7 TD

3. J.J. McCarthy

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Team Record: (9-8)
Regular season stats: 140/243, 57.6 Cmp%, 1,632
Yds, 11 TD, 12 INT, 6 Fmb

The Minnesota Vikings‘ decision to let Darnold walk after a 14-3 season in favor of starting J.J. McCarthy only looked worse as the 2025 season went on.

McCarthy led the Vikings to a 9-8 record, missing the playoffs just one season after Darnold’s big season. In his first season as a starter, McCarthy threw for 1,632 yards and 11 touchdowns while throwing 12 interceptions.

The first-year starting quarterback is still very young and should be treated with the same grace as a rookie. However, Minnesota’s commitment to McCarthy over retaining Darnold will continue to be held against the young quarterback’s case.

McCarthy did have his flashes, however. But a disastrous season that included injuries makes his output in 2025 very disappointing.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 3,400 Yds, 26 TD, 11 INT 

2. WR Brian Thomas Jr.

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Team Record: (13-4)
Regular season stats: 48 Rec, 707 Yds, 2 TD, 52.7 Ctch%

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. looked like the next star receiver out of LSU during his rookie season.

Thomas put together 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie and was poised for a bigger season under new head coach Liam Coen. But as the Jaguars’ offense took flight in 2025, the second-year wideout took a step back.

Thomas logged 707 yards and 2 touchdowns as a receiver in 2025 and was not the same threat he was as a rookie. While sophomore slumps are real, Thomas’ struggles during his sophomore season have some asking if he can maintain being a WR1.

It’s true with most players on this list; Thomas dealt with some injuries throughout the season. But his inability to reach over 100 receiving yards in a regular-season game and 2 catches in the playoffs makes his 2025 season a disappointment.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 75 Rec, 1,300 Yds, 10 TD

1. QB Lamar Jackson

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Team Record: (8-9)
Regular season stats: 192/302, 63.6 Cmp%, 2,549 Yds, 21 TD, 7 INT, 7 Fmb, 349 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD

2025 was the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson‘s chance. The AFC was weak, and the goliaths of the Kansas City Chiefs weren’t even in contention for a playoff spot.

The AFC North was equally as weak. The Cincinnati Bengals were dealing with injuries, and the Steelers were victors of the division with a 10-7 record.

Jackson didn’t play particullarly bad in 2025. He threw for 2,549 yards and 21 touchdowns to 7 interceptions while adding another 349 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. He also dealt with injuries throughout that headlined his season.

But when starting, the 2x MVP led the Ravens to a mediocre 6-7 record, leading to their missed chances at the playoffs. Former head coach John Harbaugh was fired shortly after their season concluded, and Jackson will now be working in a different system with a new head coach in 2026.

Realistic 2026 stat prediction for 17-game season: 4,000 Yds, 29 TD, 7 INT, 700 Rush Yds, 5 Rush TD

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