The NFL offseason is the perfect time to speculate. Everyone will have different opinions, and it’s great because nobody can be proved right or wrong for at least a couple of more months.

This offseason in particular, there’s a lot to speculate about. Pick any team out there, and there’s some sort of interesting storyline surrounding them, and that’s because it feels like parity in the NFL is at an all-time high. There are so many teams that could be competitive this year, even if it feels like there’s a runaway Super Bowl favorite.

Ever since the season ended back in February, I’ve jotted down some notes on some interesting overreactions I’ve seen on social media. From C.J. Stroud’s future in Houston to the Green Bay Packers’ playoff chances, here are the EssentiallySports NFL staff’s thoughts on some of the biggest offseason overreactions.

It’s a make-or-break year for C.J. Stroud in Houston

Luke Hubbard, Senior NFL Writer: NOT AN OVERREACTION

After C.J. Stroud’s phenomenal rookie season, it’s wild to think that just two years later, we’re talking about 2026 being a make-or-break year for him, but it absolutely is. Right now, the Houston Texans have the best defense in the entire NFL. They were ready to win a Super Bowl last year, but Stroud turned the ball over seven times in two playoff games last year, while the defense stood tall.

I understand the offensive line and running back rooms haven’t been great, but his play in big moments last year was inexcusable. If he has another mediocre regular season and stinks it up in the playoffs, Houston should absolutely entertain making a change, because all these young stars on defense are going to have to get paid eventually, and that means not all of them are sticking around.

Daniel Rios, Senior NFL Writer: OVERREACTION 

I don’t think it’s a full make-or-break year for C.J. Stroud; the Houston Texans still have control over him for the next two seasons. His performance in the regular season has taken a dip over the last two seasons, but a big reason why has been the non-existent rushing attack by Houston. With the upgrades they made this offseason, I expect the offense to look more complete and for Stroud to settle in more. I don’t anticipate him playing like his rookie self, but I can see a fringe Top 10 season out of Stroud in 2026. 

Tim Wood, NFL Content Chief: NOT AN OVERREACTION

This is a decisive year in telling us whether Stroud belongs in the discussion among the top 15 quarterbacks in the league – perhaps, whether he is a starter at all. Bottom line, there are just no more excuses. He has a legit running back now with David Montgomery, a completely rebuilt offensive line, and a defense that will simply ask him not to screw things up. 

The window for the Texans is this year, period. They have to take significant steps forward – an AFC Championship Game appearance or better – to justify the current and potentially future contract spends to keep the defense intact. Nico Collins is a financially happy camper for now with $52 million in guaranteed money, but he’s going to get tired of mediocrity. With Tank Dell back and Lewis Bond turning heads in OTAs, the onus is going to be on Stroud to return to rookie-season form, or the Texans will have to start thinking about moving on.

J.J. McCarthy & Michael Penix Jr. will both lose their respective QB battles

Luke: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Five quarterbacks went in the top-10 picks back in the 2024 NFL Draft, but two of them are already fighting for their careers: J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.

McCarthy suffered a major knee injury in the preseason of his rookie year, causing him to miss the whole season, but when he returned last year, he didn’t look great, and he suffered more injuries. Now, he has to battle it out with a much more experienced quarterback in Kyler Murray, who is probably more ready to help Minnesota win now than McCarthy is.

As for Penix, he has also dealt with his fair share of injuries while being pretty disappointing when on the field. I think he’s shown more than McCarthy has, but he, too, has to battle it out with a veteran – Tua Tagovailoa – who will probably help Atlanta win more games this year than Penix.

I fully expect Murray to win the Minnesota job, and if I had to put a percentage on it, I think it’s 60/40 in favor of Tua in Atlanta. A new coach doesn’t come in and handpick a veteran quarterback if he doesn’t want to start him. 

Daniel: NOT AN OVERREACTION 

I already anticipate J.J. McCarthy to lose his quarterback battle, and it’s just the simple fact that I feel Kevin O’Connell is coaching for his job in 2026. If the quarterback play isn’t substantially better this season, then fans could get restless with how O’Connell has handled the quarterback situation in Minnesota. Kyler Murray hasn’t run an offense like O’Connell’s in the NFL just yet, but he has the talent to thrive in it. It’ll depend on whether he can make accurate throws over the middle. 

Michael Penix Jr. suffered a torn ACL last season and won’t be ready to play by Week 1. Tua Tagovailoa is playing with a chip on his shoulder and could come out dominant in the Kevin Stefanski offense. If he does, then the job will likely remain his. 

Tim: NOT EVEN A QUESTION

This is a simple judgment on talent in one place and a new regime in the other. You don’t bring in Kyler Murray to put him in a quarterback battle. The Vikings know they made the wrong decision in backing McCarthy over Sam Darnold, and they’re simply not going to do it again. When you have your star wideout, Justin Jefferson, publicly calling out McCarthy, the ship has sailed on that relationship. 

My only question in Minnesota is whether Murray will outright keep the job the whole year. In a new spot minus past animosities, will he truly move beyond a beloved fantasy QB into an actual franchise leader? 

In Atlanta, Tua was brought in to fit Kevin Stefanski’s style. In my mind, he has already won the QB battle. Again, the true question is can Tua play well enough and stay healthy enough to keep the job the entire season?  

The Packers will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2022 after a disappointing offseason

Luke: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The Green Bay Packers are stuck in purgatory right now. They’ve been the No. 7 seed in the NFC for the past three seasons and have only won a single playoff game over that span, but I think that changes this year. And not in a good way.

The Packers did not get better this year. Their biggest addition in free agency was Javon Hargrave, while they lost Romeo Doubs, Quay Walker, Elgton Jenkins and more. On top of that, they didn’t draft that well. Brandon Cisse is not ready to help them this year, and the rest of their picks were just meh.

Don’t be shocked when Green Bay misses out on the playoffs this year.

Daniel: OVERREACTION 

There are concerns with the Packers and how they’ve handled this offseason, but they still have Matt Lafleur. I understand the struggles the team has had in the postseason, but LaFleur has led this team to a promising regular season record and has done so efficiently. Jordan Love has had his fair share of struggles, but he’s still a Top 10 quarterback in the league. He can carry this team to a playoff spot, and when Micah Parsons comes back healthy, this team should be looking to make a push for the playoffs.

Could they have handled this offseason a little better? 100%, but they have the talent residing on the roster with the coaching to still have a good 2026 season. 

Tim: NOT AN OVERREACTION

This is purely a numbers game. There will not be three playoff teams from the NFC North. The Bears are ascending and in a position to continue that climb. The Lions will have a bounce-back season that will have them in contention for the division and built to contend for a home playoff game or two.

The Packers are lacking in talent. LaFleur is quickly becoming the Mike Tomlin of the NFC – wins just enough to stay off the hot seat, but always leaves you hungry for more. Love alone can not carry the team without true weapons, and the Pack doesn’t have enough artillery. They’re getting older, and while Parsons may be spectacular when healthy, he’s not going to single-handedly turn five woeful offensive performances into wins.

The Rams are runaway Super Bowl favorites after the Myles Garrett trade

Luke: OVERREACTION

It’s not an overreaction to say the Los Angeles Rams are the Super Bowl favorites, but to say they’re the runaway favorites is a bit much, in my opinion. The Rams have the best roster in the NFL, no doubt about it, but all it takes is one injury to 38-year-old Matthew Stafford or one of their top receivers to significantly impact this offense.

But even if they don’t suffer a major injury, there are a lot of other very talented teams out there. Seattle is still great, San Fran is a threat, Philly has a great roster, Buffalo has Josh Allen, Denver and Houston have elite defenses, and that’s just the surface. Parity in the NFL is at an all-time high, so to say any one team is the runaway favorite is just asking for a disaster.

Daniel: NOT AN OVERREACTION 

They have to be looking at the rosters in late June. I don’t see another team that could be the runaway favorite over LA. They don’t have a pressing need; they have a loaded offense with a loaded defense. Most importantly, they were able to keep defensive coordinator Chris Shula, which keeps continuity into 2026. Expect this team to hit the ground running next season unless injuries play a factor. 

Tim: OVERREACTION

Too much happens in the course of a season to say any team is a runaway favorite. Stafford is older and one lower-back hit away from retirement. Puca Nacua has too many off-field distractions to fully trust him as a star leader. 

The Rams made a phenomenal move in getting Garrett. They start in Australia against division foe San Francisco and at the Broncos Week 3, and at the Eagles Week 4, before hosting Buffalo Week 5. I think it’s more realistic to say the Rams could start 1-4 than 4-1.

In a loaded division, just standing out in the NFC West is going to be difficult. So to call them runaway favorites, it’s just clickbait junk.

At least six divisions will be won by a different team in 2026

Luke: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It may sound crazy, but I think there’s a real chance every single division has a new winner, so I’ll certainly say at least six of them will have a new champion this year.

Let’s start in the AFC. Denver is the team I feel best about repeating, but they still have the Chiefs and Chargers to deal with. The Jaguars are good, but they may be the third-best team in their division if Daniel Jones is 100 percent. The Pats have a good shot, but I like Buffalo this year now that New England has a tougher schedule. And finally, Pittsburgh could also repeat, but I really like Cincinnati and Baltimore this year.

Then in the NFC, I think the Rams take the West away from Seattle. The Saints and Panthers will battle it out for the NFC South, but the Panthers’ schedule is significantly tougher. The Bears are great, too, but their schedule is brutal compared to Detroit’s, and I expect the Lions to bounce back in a big way. Then there’s Philly, who should repeat, but Dallas will give them a run for their money.

Like I said earlier, parity in the NFL is incredibly high right now, so it’s hard to bet on anyone to repeat.

Daniel: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The NFL is in such a good place right now when it comes to competition. Every single division could have a new winner this next season, and it’s a credit to how these teams have handled this offseason. I can’t confidently say any of these teams will repeat as division winners and the one team I’m skeptical about is the Seahawks, only because they have the Rams in their division. 

The Chiefs or Chargers can win the AFC West. The Texans are coming for the AFC South. Patriots likely win the East again, but the Bills can still compete. The Steelers have no chance of repeating with how the Ravens and Bengals handled the offseason. The Panthers could repeat, but I like the Saints or Buccaneers at this moment. Then the NFC North is a blood bath with the Bears, Lions, Packers, and Vikings. The NFC East has the Cowboys and Eagles competing for the top spot. 

This league is filled with competition, and it makes it hard to predict who will win any of these divisions. It’s not crazy at all to say we can see a new winner in each. 

Tim: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Name me ONE division you would call an absolute lock here. As much as I love my Patriots, I will only say that they’ve made the division competitive again. The Bills are still the favorite there for me. And the AFC East is the only division where I can confidently say that only two teams are in contention. 

We love ourselves some parity, and 2026 could be peak parity time for the NFL.

The NFC West will become the second conference in NFL history to put three teams in the playoffs consecutively

Luke: OVERREACTION

The Rams and Seahawks are virtually locks for the playoffs, barring any major injuries, so this question really comes down to whether the 49ers get in.

On paper, they absolutely should. They’re an extremely talented team with a great coaching staff, but their schedule is BRUTAL. They could easily go 0-4 against the Rams and Seahawks, they have two international games, and they have to play Denver, Dallas, Kansas City, Philly, and Los Angeles on top of their NFC West opponents.

Plus, there are a ton of other NFC teams ready to be in the mix. Let’s say the Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks, and Bears win their divisions again in 2026. That leaves the Rams, Saints, Cowboys, Commanders, Giants, and Lions all fighting with the 49ers for three Wild Card spots, and almost all of those teams have an easier schedule than San Fran.

I’d like to think it’ll happen, but the odds are stacked against the 49ers.

Daniel: OVERREACTION 

This is the hardest one out of all of these. The NFC is absolutely loaded, so at this moment I’ll say no. It’s hard to bet against the Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks, but looking at the rest of the NFC, it’s possible. 

The NFC North can very well send two to three teams if they all hit their strides. The NFC East made some upgrades with the Eagles, hopefully figuring out their offense, and the Cowboys, figuring out their defense. Oh, and the Washington Commanders hope to compete with a healthy Jayden Daniels. Then don’t count out the NFC South. The Panthers and Buccaneers fought for that division last year, and this season, the New Orleans Saints expect to make a run for it.

There’s just simply too much competition for me to say that the NFC West will be able to send three teams again. 

Tim: NOT AN OVERREACTION

There is just too much talent bubbling up around the league to allow this again. The league goes out of its way to stack the schedule deck to not allow it. The Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks all have the talent to be playoff teams. But let’s be honest: 2025 was more about other teams stinking down the stretch and opening up the possibility. When three teams beat up on each other as much as these teams will, it’s a statistical improbability to see it again. 

So then it becomes about which teams will take the playoff spots away from them? You’ll need two teams to jump into the playoffs. I think the Lions, Vikings, Cowboys, and Buccaneers will compete to take the spots, and I think the NFC South may have two playoff teams this season, with the Saints now in the mix with the Bucs and Panthers.

An NFL team will finish with just one win for the first time since 2020

Luke: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The last time an NFL team won just one game was back in 2020, when the Jacksonville Jaguars went 1-15. Since the 17-game schedule was implemented, nobody has won just one game, but I think that changes this year.

The Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins are clearly the two worst rosters in the NFL this season. They have some talented players, but their core isn’t strong enough to compete in two of the toughest divisions in the NFL.

On top of those two, if the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns get off to a slow start, and the 2027 QB class looks as advertised, who’s to say one of them doesn’t tank for Arch Manning or Dante Moore?

It’s hard to be bad enough to win just one game, but it feels like it could actually happen this year.

Daniel: OVERREACTION 

The Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins rosters just aren’t equipped to be competitive in 2026, but I don’t see either team having just one win. Now they both have very tough schedules and will likely be some of the worst teams in the league. But both rosters have talent to at least steal two to three games during the season. 

The Cardinals’ offense won’t dominate by any means, but they have talent in players like Jeremiyah Love, Trey McBride, and Michael Wilson. They’ll find a way to steal a game here or there, and the defense still has Budda Baker. The Dolphins are in the same boat, but they have De’Von Achane and Malik Willis. The rushing upside of those two should be enough to get a surprise game throughout the season.

Tim: NOT AN OVERREACTION

I know the 2027 QB class is strong, but I don’t want to see a one-win team in this league. 

I think the Cardinals, Raiders, and Titans all have more reason for optimism to improve on three-win seasons. The Giants and Commanders will get better, not worse. And as putrid as I think the Jets are and as much as I think Aaron Glenn will be fired by Week 6, I still think that roster is worth at least two wins, and I’m excited about their draft class.

To me, the only real contender here is the Browns – and I’m very sorry for saying it, Cleveland fans. I loved Deshaun Watson once upon a time, but his skills were in decline before all the off-field mess. I liked their draft as well, but I don’t see one week on the schedule that is a surefire win. 

I think the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals could all sweep the Browns this year. Cleveland could beat the Jets in New York Week 5, and maybe steal one against the Raiders Week 12, but that’s it. And there are enough ifs there to make me lean toward one win being more than 50 percent possible.