Not very long ago, San Francisco was all sunshine and late-round wonders. A Mr. Irrelevant became the face of a storied franchise, Kyle Shanahan was hailed as a QB whisperer, and the 49ers finally looked like they cracked the code with Brock Purdy—quarterback competence without quarterback costs. After a Super Bowl berth and two NFC Championship appearances, the fairy tale is now beginning to resemble a financial horror tale.

But the main surprise is that the bill looks like an invoice for a luxury yacht, and the price tag is due. According to multiple reports, Brock Purdy is aiming for a huge payout, possibly as much as $266 million, somewhere in the Dak Prescott stratosphere. The former seventh-round pick isn’t just looking to get paid; he wants to be paid like The Guy. And that’s precisely where the warning comes in.

That’s where Colin Cowherd comes in. This week, the veteran analyst slammed the hammer on The Herd by comparing Purdy to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott in unsettling ways. But it wasn’t praise—it was a cautionary tale. “Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott are the exact same player,” Cowherd said. “San Francisco, look at the Cowboys. Learn from what happened to Dallas.”  It was a surgical dissection, not merely a hot take. Cowherd compared both quarterbacks’ origins (late-round picks), playing styles (efficient but dependent), and situations (loaded rosters, strong support systems).

The message was clear: Dallas ceased to pose a significant threat to the Super Bowl when they paid Dak. The Cowboys became a warning slide in every team’s PowerPoint presentation on “What Not to Do” the instant they transformed the “bargain quarterback” into a “budget buster.”

Cowherd effectively pointed a $266 million neon sign that read: Don’t. Do. This. Because if you start paying Brock like Dak, you can end up with Dallas West, a team without any weapons and dependent on a quarterback who can’t elevate mediocre players to remarkable heights. But the problem is: He’s not wrong. In terms of structure, Brock Purdy has been exceptional. He will destroy you if you give him Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and a top-5 defence. So now,  Kyle Shanahan is facing a dilemma that might define his whole tenure: keep the system intact and risk losing your QB… or pay the QB and risk blowing up the system.

Kyle Shanahan built the system—Now Brock Purdy’s making him pay for it

And here’s a wake-up call for anyone who believed that this was still in the “early negotiation” stage: Brock Purdy has already declined the 49ers’ initial offer of a contract. According to Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports, Purdy’s management isn’t even responding to the offer, which “is just sitting out there.” Translation: Give it another go. And, include a few more zeroes this time.

There isn’t a speed bump there. That is a complete halt. Purdy’s rookie contract—football’s greatest modern discount—is expiring soon. And he’s prepared to cash in after providing San Francisco with two years of top-notch production at a bargain price.

And, he is not aiming for middle-tier money. NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo confirmed that Purdy wants to flirt with the Dak Prescott zone, which would put his asking price at $55–60 million per year. Purdy would then fall into the elite money category, slightly below Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes and above Trevor Lawrence. The 49ers aren’t sold, though. The league has heard that the front staff is more at ease with an offer of about $40 million. It’s a big sum, to be sure, but it’s not quite as much as Dak’s.

The result? Major locker room changes, roster purges, and cap clearance. Deebo Samuel? Gone already. Leonard Floyd and others? Released. And Brandon Aiyuk? He will be the next to go.

According to reports, the Niners offered Aiyuk a $120 million deal before beginning to prepare for a potential trade a few weeks later. The 49ers are obviously doing maths in real time, and the Browns have expressed interest. However, the $6.1 million they saved after dealing with Aiyuk hardly scratches the surface of what they would need to make Purdy’s contract possible without destroying the rest of the roster.

It’s super chaotic. It’s everything the 49ers didn’t expect when they drafted Purdy with the 262nd pick. But here we are. Kyle Shanahan is being forced to choose between the model he built and the miracle of who runs it. And as Brock Purdy slides contract offers off the table like bad sushi, the message is clear: The system made him. But now? He wants to get paid like he made the system.