Brian Daboll arrived in New York as the golden boy who helped Josh Allen become a star. Three years later, he’s clinging to his job after making the same mistake that sinks so many coaches – betting on the wrong quarterback. First, it was Daniel Jones crumbling under that $160 million deal. Now, he’s rolling the dice on Russell Wilson in what might be his final chance to prove he’s still got what it takes to lead an NFL team.

The Giants’ desperation shows in Russell Wilson’s contract – a one-year, $10.5 million prove-it deal with just $8 million guaranteed. The rest comes through unlikely bonuses for wins and performance, essentially making Wilson a placeholder until rookie Jaxson Dart is ready. Head coach Brian Daboll gets little breathing room from this stopgap solution, especially with owner John Mara admitting he’s “just about run out of patience” after two straight losing seasons.

The warning signs were clear from the start. As Vic Tafur of The Athletic noted, “Wilson will be a nice improvement over Daniel Jones… but like Rodgers, Wilson doesn’t move around so well anymore and will be a sitting duck for pass rushers and boo birds.” Those boo birds won’t have to wait long. The Giants open against Washington, Dallas, Kansas City, and the defending champion Eagles twice in the first eight weeks. That’s a nightmare stretch after two straight 9-25 seasons where the offense barely functioned.

The numbers paint a grim picture. Wilson’s 8.9% sack rate reveals a quarterback who can’t evade pressure anymore, leaving rookie Malik Nabers stranded waiting for passes that often arrive late, if they arrive at all. While the Giants boast “one of the best defensive fronts in the league,” as Tafur noted, even that dominant unit might not be enough to save Daboll’s job. As Vic noted, “The Giants have built one of the best defensive fronts in the league, and while they may not be great enough to prevent a QB change to Jaxson Dart or save coach Brian Daboll’s job, they can get to six wins.”

Now comes the decision that could define Daboll’s tenure. Does he stick with the fading Russell Wilson or pivot to rookie Jaxson Dart? The truth is brutal: coaches don’t usually survive missing on two quarterbacks. “This team might only manage six wins regardless of who’s under center,” Tafur wrote. That might be just enough time for Daboll to pack his office before the year ends.

The clock is ticking. If Russell Wilson can’t handle the upcoming gauntlet, the Giants could bench him by midseason. Daboll is under intense pressure to show any kind of progress. And in the unforgiving New York market, where patience dried up long ago, this feels like a familiar ending. Both the quarterback and coach could be looking for new jobs by the time the season wraps.

Could Russell Wilson lose his starting job before midseason?

Russell Wilson’s career has taken a dramatic turn since his early glory days in Seattle. Now on his fourth team in five seasons, the Giants are giving him what might be his final shot to prove he can still start in the NFL. The contract practically screams, “Prove it or lose it.” One-year, $10.5 million deal with just $8 million guaranteed. The rest comes from performance incentives that analysts don’t expect him to reach: $176,471 per win (if he plays at least half the snaps) and up to $1.5 million more if he stays healthy for 85% of the season.

That short leash becomes even more obvious when you factor in the Giants’ No. 3 draft pick. They used it on rookie Jaxson Dart, who’s waiting in the wings as Wilson’s likely replacement. Fansided’s Lou Scataglia writes, “When you consider that the Giants do seem to plan on starting him, you also have to consider that the leash might not be all that long.” The Giants face the league’s toughest schedule. With backups like Jameis Winston ready to jump in, Wilson could be benched as early as Week 9, against his old rivals, the 49ers.

Wilson’s Pittsburgh performance last year was serviceable but uninspiring. He threw for 2,482 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Those are the kind of numbers that keep you employed but don’t silence critics. Now he joins a Giants team that built his contract with clear intentions. He’s just keeping the seat warm for Dart. The team structured the deal for an easy exit. Only $2 million is in base salary, which makes Wilson “eminently tradable” if he struggles early.

Scataglia believes this could be Wilson’s final NFL stop. If things fall apart in New York, he might be stuck in backup roles going forward. The Giants’ quarterback plan is already shifting toward the future. From the incentive-heavy deal to their prized rookie, it’s clear they’re preparing for life without Wilson. This might be his last real chance to start. He’s not just battling defenses. He’s racing the clock on his own contract and the urgency of a franchise in transition. If the Giants stumble early, Wilson’s time might run out before the leaves even finish falling in MetLife Stadium’s parking lot.