The first week of NFL Free agency has wrapped up, and we now have a better understanding of each team’s plan for 2026.

Some contenders have made significant improvements, while others have lost their key players. After a week of the league’s biggest moves, who is in the lead to win their divisions in 2026?

NFC North: Chicago Bears

The NFC North is hard to call. The Green Bay Packers had a great free agency, but the Chicago Bears did enough to hold their lead.

Caleb Williams solidified himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league after one year in Ben Johnson‘s system. A second year and a full offseason in the mastermind offensive play caller’s system could lead to an even bigger jump.

While the Bears haven’t made many splash moves in the first week of free agency, they’ve made some significant moves. Drew Dalman shockingly retired at 27-years-old, but Chicago quickly found his replacement, trading for New England Patriots center Garrett Bradbury. The Bears sent a 2027 fifth-round pick in the trade.

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Chicago’s biggest moves came on defense, however. They signed linebacker Devin Bush to a three-year, $30 million contract and safety Coby Bryant to a three-year, $40 million deal. The Bears had the fourth-worst defense in 2025, and entering the offseason, boosting Dennis Allen‘s unit was a priority.

The Bears came home as NFC North victors in 2025, and I predict that after a solid offseason, they’ll do it again in 2026.

2026 Record Prediction: 13-4

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys

The NFC East will be one of the most interesting divisions in football in 2026. The New York Giants are expecting a second-year jump from Jaxson Dart, and they’ll be getting back plenty of stars from injury. The Washington Commanders had a huge offseason and massively upgraded their defense. The Philadelphia Eagles even made some significant moves through free agency despite losing valuable pieces.

But I believe the Dallas Cowboys will come out on top in the division in 2026. They were able to retain Javonte Williams and franchise-tagged George Pickens. Dallas also made plenty of additions, including adding Rashan Gary in a trade with the Packers.

The Cowboys continued to bolster their defense, which ranked third-worst in 2025, by signing cornerback Cobie Durant. They also added safeties P.J. Locke and Jalen Thompson.

Dallas didn’t play well in 2025, but it was mostly due to a terrible defense. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer led Dallas to the second-best offense in the league and will now shift his focus to building on their defense. With more questions than answers surrounding the Eagles, the Cowboys can come out as NFC East champs in 2026.

2026 Record Prediction: 11-6

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

Winning the NFC South isn’t an impressive feat. In 2025, the Carolina Panthers took the division with an 8-9 record.

But the New Orleans Saints are on the right track. After starting rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, the Saints finished with a 5-4 record under Shough, including being winners of four of their last five. This also will be head coach Kellen Moore’s first full offseason with the team, making the moves he envisioned when he took the job.

New Orleans was busy in free agency as well. They started with addressing their special teams, signing punter Ryan Wright to a four-year deal that made him the fifth-highest-paid punter. But it was their offensive moves that stood out.

The Saints signed running back Travis Etienne and guard David Edwards to four-year deals. Both Etienne and Edwards were at the top of their positions in the free agency class, and they immediately boost New Orleans’ bad rushing offense. The Saints had a bottom-five rushing attack in 2025.

While New Orleans did lose plenty of pieces on their defense, a weak division, and a second-year jump from Shough should lead to the Saints coming out victorious for the first time since 2020.

2026 Record Prediction: 10-7

NFC West: Los Angeles Rams

The Los Angeles Rams were probably the second-best team in the NFL last season, and the NFC Championship was the real Super Bowl.

The NFC West is a bloodbath. It’s anyone but the Arizona Cardinals division. The Seattle Seahawks ran the gauntlet in 2025, beating the San Francisco 49ers and the Rams in the playoffs, but each team has made significant additions in free agency.

The 49ers made big moves, including veteran wide receiver Mike Evans, to their offense, but the Rams came out as the winners. Los Angeles traded for cornerback Trent McDuffie, then signed his former Kansas City Chiefs teammate Jaylen Watson.

The Rams’ offense is the best in the league, and they just added some of the top cornerbacks on the market. While the Seahawks were losing plenty of their biggest pieces to winning the Super Bowl, the Rams only got better and should win the division in 2026.

2026 Record Prediction: 14-3

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

Truthfully, I’d like to pick the Cincinnati Bengals here. But you could never rely on the Bengals’ ability to protect Joe Burrow and keep him healthy. It also doesn’t help that the Baltimore Ravens snatched up pass rusher Trey Hendrickson from the Bengals, making life even harder on Burrow.

The Pittsburgh Steelers won the division in 2025 and probably had the best offseason in the division so far. But the loss of Mike Tomlin as head coach can’t be overlooked. Baltimore also lost their head coach, but they simply have more firepower on the roster, highlighted by superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens focused on adding to their defense in free agency. On top of acquiring the best pass rushers in the league in Hendrickson, they signed safety Jaylinn Hawkins.

Protecting Jackson was also a priority, and they signed offensive lineman John Simpson to a three-year, $30 million deal. Losing center Tyler Linderbaum was huge, but Simpson was quality insurance to bolster the offensive line.

The AFC North is an oddball. They could be the best division in the league, or one of the worst. Either way, I have Baltimore coming out as victors.

2026 Record Prediction: 10-7

AFC East

This is probably a controversial pick. The Patriots were just in the Super Bowl and were winners of the AFC East in 2025. The Buffalo Bills also just fired their head coach, creating uncertainty.

But they’ve had a strong offseason so far. They found a WR1 for Josh Allen after trading for D.J. Moore with the Bears, and retained Connor McGovern.

While losing A.J. Epenesa in free agency, they quickly improved their defense, signing pass rusher Bradley Chubb to a three-year, $43.5 million deal. Other significant defensive moves include signing Dee Alford and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to improve their secondary.

It’ll be a long road if the Bills want to win the AFC East in 2026. The Patriots were dominant in 2025, but maybe the Super Bowl was an indicator of how far they really are.

2026 Record Prediction: 12-5

AFC South

It’s hard to compete with the fierce Houston Texans defense, but what the Jacksonville Jaguars showed in one season under Liam Coen was electric. They ranked with the 11th-best offense in the league, and that’s without utilizing wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. correctly. Another season under Coen might be dangerous for the AFC South.

The Tennessee Titans and the Texans have been the most active teams in free agency. Tennessee entered with the most cap space in the league, so it’s no surprise, but none of Houston’s additions move me. Braden Smith is a great addition to their offensive line, and David Montgomery will finally boost their terrible run game, but I don’t believe they’ll be able to keep up with the Jaguars.

Jacksonville itself has been pretty quiet throughout free agency. They’ve only made one addition and lost significant pieces such as Etienne and Devin Lloyd. Despite this, I still believe they are the best team in the division, but the Texans are a close second.

2026 Record Prediction: 11-6

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers

Just like the NFC West, the AFC West is a bloodbath of a division. The Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and, of course, the Chiefs. While Kansas City wasn’t a playoff team in 2025, their seven straight AFC Championship appearances can’t be overlooked, and they can’t be counted out.

The Broncos haven’t been active in free agency, and the Chiefs have made some solid moves, but it was the Chargers who won the free agency in the AFC West. Los Angeles is notorious for its poor offensive line, and they prioritized in free agency.

The Chargers signed guard Cole Strange, tackle Tyler Biadasz, and re-signed Trey Pipkins. Los Angeles also added a couple of Raven offensive standouts, signing running back Keaton Mitchell and tight end Charlie Kolar.

The Broncos will be hard to compete with. They went 14-3 and probably would’ve been a Super Bowl team had Bo Nix not suffered an injury in the AFC Championship game. Despite this, I like the Chargers’ moves this offseason and predict they will win the AFC West.

2026 Record Prediction: 13-4