Eight weeks of the 2025 NFL season are officially in the books, with the race for NFL Coach of the Year starting to take shape, as specific candidates have begun to separate themselves from the pack.

Here are five legitimate candidates for the regular-season award, along with one dark horse, who may be able to leap ahead of his peers before it is all said and done.

1. Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots – Record: 6-2

When a franchise in transition hires a veteran with a strong pedigree, the burden is high, and Mike Vrabel is feeling it. Vrabel was introduced as the head coach of the New England Patriots in January 2025, returning to his old stomping grounds, where he starred as a player and learned under legendary coach Bill Belichick.

Case for Vrabel

• Early returns are encouraging. The Patriots’ 6-2 record is their best eight-game start since 2019.
• Vrabel has quickly changed the culture while molding Drake Maye into a legitimate NFL MVP candidate.
• He’s already a former NFL Coach of the Year (2021) and brings credibility.
• Narrative: Rebuild turnaround, fresh leadership, a young quarterback in his second year, and a historic franchise trying to rise again.

Potential Hurdles

• The schedule will only get tougher, and building from 4-13 to near playoff contention is a heavy lift.
• Coach of the Year voters sometimes favor surprise success beyond expectations. Turning around from 4-13 is one thing, but sustaining it and exceeding expectations is another.
• If New England falters down the stretch, voters might discount the early success as a “good start” rather than a complete transformation.
• However, if the Patriots keep up this momentum, Vrabel may be the clear choice to win this regular-season award.

Odds of Winning: I’d go with a 60% chance

2. Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts – Record: 7-1 (Best in NFL)

Steichen entered the season with something to prove. The Indianapolis Colts have been mired in a playoff drought, and Steichen must show tangible progress or face significant scrutiny.

Case for Steichen

• The Colts are off to an incredible start that no one saw coming.
• Steichen has instilled a fresh feel and culture: “We’re a different team.”
• If the Colts can break their long drought, Steichen will be credited for turning around a stagnant organization.
• He has resurrected quarterback Daniel Jones’ career.

Potential Hurdles

• If they stumble mid-season or lose key games, the narrative shifts to an early-season fluke, which weakens a COY bid.
• Steichen’s candidacy is strong if Indianapolis continues this impressive pace. He’s easily the biggest threat to Vrabel winning this award for a second time.

Odds of Winning: 70% Chance

3. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Record: 6-2

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won three consecutive NFC South titles under his watch, and the team is well on its way to winning a fourth straight division title.

Case for Bowles

• Stability under Bowles is commendable. After the post-Tom Brady transition, Tampa Bay remains competitive as ever.
• He has demonstrated adaptability, as evidenced by stepping into multiple roles, managing roster changes, and maintaining division dominance.
• A strong regular season or deep playoff run would push his credentials for Coach of the Year.
• He’s helped resurrect Baker Mayfield’s career much like Steichen with Jones.

Potential Hurdles

• The Bucs may not have the classic “underdog” narrative; they already have success under Bowles, which sometimes reduces the perceived “value add” for voters.
• If the Bucs falter against expectations, Bowles’s resume shifts from “steady winner” to “still right where we thought.”
• Bowles is a solid candidate, but unless Tampa Bay raises the bar significantly in 2025, his COY chances may be more modest.

Odds of winning: 65% Chance

4. Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions – Record: 5-2

Campbell has become not just a coach, but a symbol of a rising franchise. The pride of Detroit, some might say.

The Detroit Lions posted franchise‐record win totals in recent seasons under his leadership (15-2 in 2024) and are considered Super Bowl title contenders after seven games.

Case for Campbell

• The Lions’ recent surge in competitiveness is undeniable; Campbell helped shift the culture from perennial underdog to perennial playoff team to a legitimate title contender.
• If Detroit keeps rolling in 2025, Campbell’s stock will rise.
• His leadership and public persona (motivational, passionate) give him the kind of “story appeal” voters love.

Potential Hurdles

• Coach of the Year typically honors dramatic turnarounds or teams that exceed expectations. Detroit already has high expectations; maintaining success is good, but it’s not always enough for COY.
• If the Lions falter or fail to meet elevated expectations, Campbell might be judged harshly by voters. Indeed, one source noted he was “snubbed” despite finishing second in 2024 COY voting.
• The margin for error is small; maintaining momentum is harder than building it in the first place.
• Still, Campbell remains a name to watch if Detroit continues to dominate the competition.

Odds of winning: 40% Chance

5. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers – Record: 5-1-1

LaFleur is a case of established excellence rather than underdog resurgence. The Green Bay Packers coach has guided the team with consistency.

Case for LaFleur

• The team is a contender in the NFC, and if the Packers continue to deliver, LaFleur will get serious consideration for COY.
• The “too good to ignore” factor: When you are expected to contend and you deliver, even maintain, you often get rewarded.
• Analysts have pointed out his strong track record, especially his offensive acumen and game-management record.

Potential Hurdles

• When a coach is expected to succeed, sometimes voters overlook them because the storyline lacks surprise. Voters like coaches who exceed expectations, not just meet them.
• If Green Bay falters even slightly, LaFleur’s COY candidacy could fade quickly, since he didn’t have to overcome major obstacles like others.

Odds of winning: 25% Chance

Dark Horse: Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams – Record: 5-2

Few coaches have the pedigree of McVay, but for one reason or another, he rarely ticks the COY box in voters’ minds. He’s nevertheless a dark horse for 2025.

Why McVay?

• He has built consistent success and is widely respected for innovation and team building.
• If the Los Angeles Rams exceed expectations this season, McVay’s COY case could gain traction.
• Being a familiar name can work both ways: While voters sometimes avoid established coaches, a surprising season by him could flip the narrative in his favor.

Why a Dark Horse?

• McVay has won in the past and is considered more “established” than a fresh face, which means voters might discount him for COY unless there’s a dramatic transformation.
• The Rams would need to exceed preseason expectations significantly for McVay to break through the crowded field. Coach of the Year tends to reward turnaround stories rather than “maintain success” stories.

Odds of Winning: 10% Chance

Final Thoughts

The 2025 Coach of the Year race features a rich mix: Fresh rebuilds (Vrabel), rising young coaches under pressure (Steichen), steady winners (Bowles, LaFleur), and culture‐builders (Campbell).

Add the dark-horse McVay, and you have a deep field.

If I were to pick now, Vrabel carries the strongest narrative, returning to a storied franchise, rebuilding, and early signs of success. LaFleur might be the safest pick if the Packers continue to dominate. Campbell has the sentimental appeal and momentum. Bowles and Steichen are compelling but need big breakthroughs. And McVay’s chance hinges on potentially needing to be the top seed in the NFC ahead of the NFL playoffs.

To win the award, a coach likely needs to hit three criteria:

1. Team significantly outperforms expectations
2. Demonstrates clear transformation or upward trajectory
3. Maintains one of the best records in the league through the regular season

Keep an eye on how these six satisfy those criteria as the months unfold.