Accusations that the NFL favors Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have become a recurring debate, and Week 6 added fresh fuel. On fourth-and-goal from the half-yard line, the Detroit Lions attempted a bold trick play that initially seemed to succeed, as Jared Goff bobbled, caught the pass, and ran into the end zone. But confusion quickly followed when officials flagged Goff for an illegal motion, ruling that he hadn’t paused long enough before moving out wide. The late and controversial call left fans and analysts questioning whether it was mere misfortune or something deeper. Interestingly, a research paper might have some answers.

Recently, University of Texas’ finance professors Spencer C. Barnes, Brandon Mendez, and Ted Dischman shared a concerning report on Patrick Mahomes and Co. They analyzed every defensive flag thrown in NFL games from 2015 to 2023 to know if claims of officiating bias were fan frustration or a measurable pattern. Using a panel dataset that accounted for home field advantage, yards to go, and defensive aggressiveness, they compared each opponent’s performance against the Chiefs versus other teams. Even after adjusting for all these variables, Mahomes’s team still benefited from more penalties in their favor.

As Barnes explained it to Texas Monthly, “Increased flag throwing does seem to be concentrated just within the Chiefs, and especially within the postseason.” While the difference isn’t massive, “typically one more penalty for the Chiefs,” it can be crucial in tight games. “You might think that’s not really that big of a deal, but one more penalty could extend the drive and lead to three more points, which would win them the game.”However, Barnes also clarified that his team’s findings don’t prove intent.

“This is correlation; this is not causation,” he says. “We’re not making any claims that this is a directive from the NFL. I think what we’re picking up on here is maybe some implicit bias, but there could be lots of other things going on.” He noted that similar analyses of other top teams, the Tom Brady-era Patriots, Rams, 49ers, and Eagles, did not reveal the same pattern; this phenomenon appeared unique to the Chiefs.

Analyzing over 13,000 penalty calls from 2015 through 2023. Their study found that postseason officiating disproportionately favored the Mahomes-era Chiefs, coinciding with their rise as one of the NFL’s most marketable franchises. This advantage was particularly evident during nationally televised games and high-stakes playoff moments, where penalties against opponents were 2.36 more yards than average, and flags were 23 percent more likely to result in a first down for Kansas City. Subjective calls, like roughing the passer or pass interference, also occurred 28 percent more frequently in the Chiefs’ favor. The study also explored why this might occur.

One hypothesis is the economic and viewership impact Mahomes generates: refs might subconsciously respond to the high stakes, ensuring games stay competitive and star players remain on the field. Barnes likens it to “regulatory capture,” a principle from economics where the regulated end up influencing the regulator’s decisions. Barnes notes that when the league’s financial health is at stake, rule enforcement may subtly shift to protect market appeal. For instance, games with celebrity appearances, such as Taylor Swift attending a September 24, 2023, Chiefs game, drew 24.3 million viewers, well above the season average of 15 million. In the NFL’s context, referees operate under immense pressure and public scrutiny, making subtle biases possible.

During the regular season, however, the pattern reverses, with Kansas City generally receiving less than average yardage on penalties and fewer first downs than the league norm.

But in Week 6, when the Lions fell 30-17 to the Chiefs, Detroit’s head coach Dan Campbell sparked controversy, hinting that referee Craig Wrolstad may have been influenced by the league office before throwing a critical penalty flag.

NFL referee denies accusation of helping Patrick Mahomes and co.

“I know it came from New York, and they said he never stopped. He stayed in motion. He can’t stay in motion. That was that,” said the head coach. A few days later, the NFL’s executive VP of football operations, Troy Vincent, sat down with Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. When asked directly on the play, Vincent, too, didn’t hesitate.

“I’m not sure who Coach Campbell was referring to, but we did not assist in that,” he said. He added that the delay between the play and the penalty came from “on-field officials communicating with one another.” It wasn’t a call with replay officials in Kansas City or the league office in New York.

He even clarified further, saying, “You can hear the officials gathering in this particular case… but we didn’t have to get involved in this particular play.” Later, in a post-game pool report, Wrolstad backed that up, denying any outside help.

The study shows the Chiefs may get more penalties in their favor, but it doesn’t prove anyone is cheating. It points to possible bias, not clear proof of league involvement.