The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter the 2025 season with solid momentum following last year’s playoff run. According to ESPN’s projections, they’re expected to win nine games, with a 58.9% chance of making the postseason and 48.7% odds of capturing the NFC South, clear signs of division contender status. Yet ESPN’s deeper analysis reveals troubling trends that could land them on an unwanted list of teams with hidden flaws and fading trust.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano made a statement saying, “Honestly, I’m starting to wonder why I’m even mentioning Mayfield and the Buccaneers here…” His dismissive tone suggests he is questioning Tampa Bay’s relevance despite their consistent success. Baker Mayfield, once a journeyman across three teams, became the Buccaneers’ franchise leader after replacing Tom Brady. Now in their third season together, head coach Todd Bowles is facing Mayfield’s biggest challenge, his shaky pocket presence under pressure. With injuries piling up and expectations soaring, Tampa Bay needs him at his best.

The Bucs’ receiving corps has taken two huge injury hits, with Chris Godwin likely not playing until October and Jalen McMillan out until November, so the team will need to lean on Mayfield once again to run the show. In fact, ESPN’s Jenna Laine highlighted Mayfield’s resilience heading into 2025 despite facing significant challenges.

“Quarterback Baker Mayfield is coming off back-to-back career-best seasons,” Jenna Laine said. The quarterback threw 41 touchdown passes last season, second only to Joe Burrow, and posted a 71.4% completion rate, ranking third in the NFL. He achieved this despite missing key offensive weapons, proving his adaptability and leadership, and was duly rewarded for it.

Tampa Bay’s $30 million guarantee for Mayfield in 2026 signals strong organizational confidence, with a longer extension possible this season or next. Analyst Matt Bowen sees rookie Emeka Egbuka as an early go-to target, thanks to his sharp route-running and competitive edge, especially with Godwin and McMillan sidelined.

Still, not everything is perfect. Despite Tampa Bay’s investment and Mayfield’s leadership, a key flaw continues to fuel doubt, echoed in Dan Graziano’s dismissive remark.

Baker Mayfield’s pocket presence holds back elite potential

Baker Mayfield enters his third season in Tampa Bay with almost everything figured out except one critical flaw. PFF’s John Kosko identified the former number-one pick’s biggest weakness in his comprehensive quarterback analysis ahead of 2025.

Despite career-best numbers and consistent division titles, Mayfield still struggles with pocket navigation when pressure collapses around him. This weakness could prevent the Buccaneers from reaching their championship ceiling. Kosko’s analysis reveals how Mayfield’s pocket awareness creates unnecessary limitations on Tampa Bay’s offensive potential. The quarterback’s instinct to bail out rather than step forward costs the team explosive plays.

“We’re at a point in Mayfield’s career where it is difficult to pinpoint a specific weakness in his grading profile. While he doesn’t grade as an elite passer, he’s above average to good in several areas. Where he was forced to move up in the pocket in 2024, though, he earned a 44.8 PFF passing grade and failed to make a big-time throw on 61 dropbacks,” Kosko explained.

Those numbers reveal a clear gap in Mayfield’s otherwise solid skill set. His tendency to extend plays sideways instead of stepping up limits Tampa Bay’s downfield attack. A 44.8 grade when moving up and zero big-time throws on 61 dropbacks highlight how this flaw consistently costs the team explosive plays.

Head coach Todd Bowles and his staff recognize this issue and want Mayfield to protect himself more in 2025. His reckless abandon creates highlight plays but also dangerous hits that could derail seasons. Teaching proper pocket navigation would unlock Tampa Bay’s offensive potential without sacrificing Mayfield’s playmaking ability. If Mayfield conquers this final frontier, the Buccaneers could become legitimately dangerous contenders rather than just division winners.