Ahead of Sunday’s matchup, Baker Mayfield was a perfect 5–0 against the Carolina Panthers. That streak is gone now, and so is some breathing room in the playoff race for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina edged Tampa Bay 23–20, and while a few moments tilted the game, everything ultimately came down to one late mistake.

That mistake arrived late in the fourth when Mayfield turned the ball over with less than a minute remaining. After the game, head coach Todd Bowles didn’t dodge the question about the turnover that sealed it. He called it what it was: a miscommunication between his quarterback and his top receiver, Mike Evans.

“Looks like miscommunication,” Bowles said. “I’ll wait until I go back and talk to them and see. Mike (Evans) turned in, and the ball went out. It’s unfortunate, of course.”

The stage for that moment was set earlier. With 2:20 left in the fourth quarter, Panthers rookie kicker Ryan Fitzgerald drilled a 48-yard field goal to give Carolina a 23–20 lead. The Bucs still had time. One good drive could’ve meant a go-ahead touchdown, or at worst, a tying kick. The margin was thin, but the opportunity was real.

Then came the final snap that mattered. With 42 seconds left, Tampa Bay faced second-and-9 at the Carolina 42. Mayfield expected Evans to break outside. Evans turned inside. Rookie safety Lathan Ransom read it perfectly, slid under the throw, and intercepted the pass. Game over. Final score: 23–20.

Statistically, it wasn’t a disastrous night for Mayfield. The quarterback finished 18-of-26 for 145 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while also rushing for 49 yards on 4 carries. Evans, on the other hand, caught five passes for 31 yards. But in a one-possession game, the only turnover loomed large.

For Carolina, the win moves them closer to a division title and a playoff return that’s been nearly a decade in the making. For Tampa Bay, though, the picture looks much murkier. Their playoff path is still there. But it just got a lot narrower.

Can Baker Mayfield’s squad still make the playoffs?

What started as a 24–20 upset loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 14 has quickly snowballed into something much bigger for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. What once looked like a manageable hiccup now has the team staring at a potential three-game skid, and with it, a loosening grip on the NFC South. Coming into Week 16, the Panthers and the Bucs were dead even at 7–7.

But not only were these two just scheduled to meet in Week 16, but they will see each other again in Week 18 to close the regular season. Same division. Same stakes. One playoff spot. One division winner. Naturally, that sets up the bigger question: how does the NFC South actually shake out from here?

Right now, Carolina holds the edge. They’re one game up on Tampa and already beat them once, which means they own the all-important tiebreaker. So if the Panthers win in Week 17 and the Bucs lose, it’s over. Carolina clinches the division on the spot. The problem? That Week 17 matchup is brutal. The Panthers have to take on the NFC’s top seed, the Seattle Seahawks, who sit at 12-3.

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Meanwhile, Tampa gets what looks like a far more forgiving matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who are sliding at 6-9. If Carolina loses to Seattle and Tampa handles Miami, both teams would head into Week 18 at 8-8. And at that point, it’s as clean as it gets: winner takes the NFC South. For Carolina, the math is simple: Win or even tie, and the division is theirs thanks to the tiebreaker. For Tampa, there’s no safety net. They have to win.

The Buccaneers’ clearest path is winning out. Beat the Dolphins. Beat the Panthers. Do that, and Tampa finishes 9-8, leapfrogs Carolina, and takes the division. There is another, messier path too: if Tampa ties Miami, beats Carolina, and the Panthers lose to Seattle, Tampa could still sneak in at 8-8-1 while Carolina falls to 8-9.

Either way, the message is clear. The final two weeks will decide everything in the NFC South. It’s either Carolina finally breaking its playoff drought or Tampa stepping in once again to deliver the heartbreak.