The Brandon Aiyuk situation is reminiscent of Cold War tactics. Both he and the San Francisco 49ers are waiting for the other to make the first move in a battle that has long passed the window for a resolution. However, the team might still be in line to pay up the scorned WR if he makes one particular move.

“If Brandon Aiyuk reports to the 49ers facility and they fail his physical, unless they cut him with an injury designation, they still would be liable for his salary because his injury occurred during a game,” writes SI’s Grant Cohn on X. “And I doubt they want to give him another cent. All he has to do is show up, and he’s free.”

Aiyuk was set to earn $1.21 million as base salary this season. The bigger money was already stripped off when the Niners voided his 2026 guarantees last offseason. The 49ers are the disgruntled party here, because complicated negotiations had already forced them to offer Aiyuk a $120 million, four-year contract in the 2024 offseason. It all went up in the air after Aiyuk injured himself later that year.

If the Niners cut him now, they save $6.3 million in cap space and absorb $7.3 million in dead cap. A post-June 1 trade also carries those exact figures for San Francisco. And after weeks of bad blood and public shots fired at the 49ers, Aiyuk being dropped is imminent, all by his design.

Per the Associated Press, Aiyuk did not attend offseason camp last year and left the team towards its end. San Francisco, frustrated with his conduct, voided the 2026 money. There has been zero contact between him and the team, and general manager John Lynch has already declared that Aiyuk has “played his last snap.”

The WR, on the other hand, has grown impatient and volatile. He wants to be released ASAP, but San Francisco is holding on until they find a proper trade option. Aiyuk has attacked the Niners on social media twice in the last ten days because of this delay.

“We’re dealing with those kids when they don’t get picked for the basketball game at the court,” he said in an Instagram video on June 7. “But they’re the ones that brought the ball. So they’re like, ‘Alright, you all don’t want to pick me; I’m taking my ball, I’m going home.’ … Man, stop running from the bill.

“…It’s inevitable. It’s coming. Stop running,” he concluded.

Aiyuk then shared this message on June 9 in another social media post.

“You wanna know why they really mad tho?” Aiyuk fired off. “They mad because they stupid. They mad because they paid me $50 million in eight months. And then voided my guarantees for [2026]. And I’m about to be on a new team in 2026. They mad at themselves.”

Aiyuk has already earned $48.15 million from his 2024  extension, per Over The Cap.

In the middle of this spat, the WR also managed to hint at wanting to play for the Washington Commanders. In an Instagram story, Aiyuk shared a photo of himself wearing a Washington Cap. “The gig is up,” he wrote on the story. And, his Instagram account, at the time of writing this, only follows the Commanders, their quarterback Jayden Daniels, Adidas, his wife Rochelle, and his theb1ggestbrand.

But after everything that’s happened this offseason, is a move to Washington really in the cards?

The Commanders fit for Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk wants to catch passes from Jayden Daniels. The QB knows him from their shared year at Arizona State (2019), and the WR recorded more than 1,100 receiving yards that season. Moreover, the Commanders’ general manager, Adam Peters, was the VP of Player Personnel in San Francisco when Aiyuk was drafted.

Beyond that shared history, Washington needs targets for Daniels behind Terry McLaurin. The Commanders also have the cap space to chase a player like Aiyuk, especially if his market stock keeps falling. But this upside is just one side of the argument.

“The reality is this,” NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said on June 9. “You have a player who, regardless of what his contract says, he’s a minimum-type player at this moment, some potential upside. That’s not a guy you generally trade for. Even if you’re the Commanders and Jayden Daniels is a close friend of his here, you have to start to have some real questions about exactly what you’re bringing in. Not just physically, the guy hasn’t played in a year and a half. He never got healthy enough to get on the field and play last season.”

The last NFL snap Aiyuk took was that Week 7 game in 2024 against the Chiefs. Aside from that, the social media war he’s raging now isn’t helping his case with the Commanders either.

“But also on the mental side of things, given everything that transpired in San Francisco, things that led up to voiding his guarantees, and now the messages,” Pelissero continued. “Is this a guy we’re going to be babysitting and going to be having to manage at a time you have a first-time offensive coordinator, you’ve got huge changes in a pivotal year from that coaching staff?”

After a disastrous 5-12 season, the Commanders moved on from Kliff Kingsbury and promoted David Blough to be their new offensive coordinator. He needs time to sync with the roster, and a player with Aiyuk’s track record (even with the upside) is only going to be a distraction for them.

Meanwhile, Aiyuk also has an arrest warrant in his name for speeding near Levi’s Stadium. Right now, regardless of the little positive he might bring to the team, he is a walking red flag.

The whole thing ultimately boils down to Aiyuk showing up at training camp. If he does, the Niners pay up, and he can still suit up for the team that spent a first-round pick on him. Stay away, and San Francisco can keep waiting while Washington keeps wondering whether this mess is worth entering.