When you hear Manning, you think legacy—NFL royalty. So it’s no surprise that Arch Manning is already generating NFL buzz. But here’s the catch: he’s not eligible yet. That hasn’t stopped teams and fans from dreaming, though. Because while Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders headline the 2025 QB class, some front offices are already looking ahead, asking a big question: Is it worth the wait—or even the tank—for Arch Manning? He’s not draft-eligible until 2026, but the hype is already very real.

Let’s clear up the basics first. Arch Manning is still pretty fresh out of high school, just two years ago. Since he just finished his second year of college, it’s pretty clear he needs at least one more season before thinking about the pros. According to NFL rules: “To be eligible for the draft, players must have been out of high school for at least three years and must have used up their college eligibility before the start of the next college football season. Underclassmen and players who have graduated before using all their college eligibility may request the league’s approval to enter the draft early.”

So no matter how much buzz he’s generating, the NFL will have to wait at least one more season. And honestly? That’s probably a good thing for Arch.

Arch spent most of 2023 redshirting and backing up Quinn Ewers at Texas. In limited action that year, his stat line was modest: 2 of 5 passing (40%) for 30 yards, plus 3 rushes for 7 yards. But in 2024, when Ewers missed time with an abdominal injury, Arch finally got the nod. And in just two starts, he gave everyone a glimpse of why he’s viewed as that guy. In the 2024 season: 61 of 90 passing (67.8%) for 939 yards, 9 TDs, and just 2 interceptions. Sure, it’s a small sample size. But the talent? Undeniable.

And that’s why some scouts are already treating Arch Manning like a future No. 1 pick—even with just two starts under his belt. “The Texas quarterback already has scouts drooling over his potential. He’s more athletic than his uncles and possesses the arm talent and mental processing that made Peyton and Eli so special,” said Max Chadwick from PFF.

Arch isn’t just playing the name game. He’s showing legit tools—NFL size at 6’4″, 225 pounds, elite processing, and enough mobility to extend plays. One play in particular turned heads: a 67-yard touchdown run against UTSA that showed off his speed and instincts in one electrifying moment. He’s got the frame. He’s got the arm. And he’s got that Manning mind for the game.

But he also has time. And in today’s college football landscape, that might be his greatest asset.

Could Arch Manning wait even longer?

Let’s say 2025 doesn’t go exactly as planned—whether it’s a QB rotation, injury, or something out of the syllabus. Arch could easily stay at Texas through 2026 and enter the 2027 NFL Draft instead. Thanks to NIL deals and brand partnerships, there’s no rush to cash in at the next level. And that keeps both college football fans and NFL scouts glued to his timeline.

If he leaves after the 2025 season, he’ll be one of the hottest names on the board for 2026. But if he stays an extra year? He might walk into 2027 as the undisputed QB1 of that class.

Let’s be honest—some NFL teams in rebuild mode might already be doing the math. If 2025 doesn’t offer the right QB, do you swing now… or wait for Manning? With Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders likely off the board early in 2025, QB-needy franchises could be tempted to roll with a stopgap and gear up for Arch’s arrival. It’s not crazy. We’ve seen teams angle for draft position before. And for a talent like Manning? Some might consider it.

Because even with his limited tape, Arch’s upside is as good as anyone in college football. Way-too-early 2026 mock drafts have already begun rolling out—and yep, Arch’s name is all over them. Some have him in the top five. Others? Going No. 1 overall.

If he plays a full season in 2025 as the starter and continues to shine, there’s a real chance he cements himself as the most coveted QB prospect since Trevor Lawrence. And considering how clean his mechanics are, how natural he looks under pressure, and—let’s not forget—the bloodline, it’s not hard to see why.

Arch Manning doesn’t have to prove he belongs. He just has to wait. And while that wait can be frustrating for fans who want to fast-forward to his NFL debut, it’s part of the process. He’s building his resume, stacking reps, and slowly turning into the next face of a franchise—whoever drafts him. So no, Arch isn’t in the 2025 class. But that doesn’t mean he’s off the radar.