Steve Sarkisian and Marcus Freeman saw their playoff hopes disappear while other teams who played weaker opponents were able to get through. The playoff committee is not looking at who you play against, just the win-loss result at the end.

College football also keeps telling fans that bigger games are good for the sport. Then, every few weeks, another marquee matchup vanishes. That is exactly what happened when USC walked away from a planned series with Texas Tech. For six months, both schools planned a high-profile, neutral-site showcase. Now, those plans are completely dead.

According to an On3 report by Brett McMurphy, USC pulled out of discussions for games in Houston in 2027 and Las Vegas in 2028. Texas Tech is coming off a 12-2 season and a Big 12 championship. Facing a rising power was a massive hurdle, and one source summed up the talks in two words: “It’s dead.”

This wasn’t just another game crossed off a scheduling sheet. It would’ve been Lincoln Riley walking back into a matchup with the school where his coaching journey began. He played QB at Texas Tech before climbing the coaching ladder in Lubbock, becoming a household name at Oklahoma, and eventually taking over at USC.

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USC never really wanted this one. The plan, Houston in 2027 and Vegas in 2028, meant giving up two home dates and the money that comes with them. Add the Big Ten’s cold shoulder toward Texas Tech after the Brendan Sorsby ruling, and the Trojans walked away.

Also, the decision comes down to survival. Moving to the Big Ten forced USC into gruelling cross-country trips and weekly battles against very physical opponents. Adding a non-conference matchup against Texas Tech creates an unnecessary risk. USC decided that stacking up hard games on top of an already brutal conference slate simply was not worth it.

USC and Texas Tech have only met three times in history, with the Trojans winning every game. Their last meeting came in the 1995 Cotton Bowl, where USC rolled to a 55-14 win and finished 8-3-1 (at the end of the 1994 season). More than three decades later, both schools finally had a chance to revive the matchup. That chance has now snapped.

USC backing out naturally raises uncomfortable questions about dodging risk. But the Trojans are not alone. Defending national champion Indiana also walked away from its future series against Notre Dame, opting for far lighter non-conference slates. Across the country, elite programs are realizing that playing tough games out of conference only hurts playoff chances.

The strategy is simple and pragmatic. Skip the risky non-conference matchups, pile up low-stress wins, and avoid early damage to your record. Then let the playoff committee evaluate your conference record. It is a business decision that protects postseason goals, even if it leaves fans with fewer exciting early-season games.

The expanded CFP has changed the math

Years ago, strength of schedule carried enormous weight because there wasn’t a 12-team playoff waiting at the end. Programs chased difficult games because they had to. Today, avoiding risk often makes more sense than embracing it, as Texas’ head coach Steve Sarkisian also pointed out. That’s not really the schools’ fault because the system rewards it. Unless the CFP committee starts placing greater value on challenging nonconference schedules, programs will keep taking the safer route.

USC still believes bigger goals are ahead. The Trojans finished 9-4 last season, and Lincoln Riley recently sounded optimistic about where the program is headed.

“Taking this over, you knew you had to go fight like hell just to try to get this window opened,” he previously told On3. “We’re at a point right now where there’s a lot to be excited about… It should be a lot of fun these next few years.”

The schedule does not help here either. They might start off easy by opening the regular season at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with three straight non-conference home games, starting with a Week Zero matchup against San Jose State (Aug. 29), followed by Fresno State (Sept. 4) and Louisiana (Sept. 12).

But then conference play begins on the road at Rutgers (Sept. 19), followed by a grueling stretch that includes high-profile home games against Oregon (Sept. 26), Washington (Oct. 3), and Ohio State (Oct. 31).

Lincoln Riley faces equally daunting road tests at Penn State (Oct. 10), Wisconsin (Oct. 24), and against the reigning conference champions, Indiana (Nov. 14). The Trojans will then close out their season with a home game against Maryland (Nov. 21) before traveling to the Rose Bowl for their traditional crosstown rivalry finale against UCLA (Nov. 28).

Considering this schedule, and last year’s standard for getting into the postseason, Riley cannot afford more than two losses. Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, and even Penn State will provide tough battles across with some trap games laid out against Washington and UCLA. It makes sense for Riley to avoid bigger opponents in the future.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech is coming off a 12-2 season, a Big 12 title, and they’re the highest-ranked team in the conference at No. 12 in the preseason Coaches Poll. That’s why this game had some real juice. Now another big matchup has been tossed aside. More schools are figuring out that the safer road gets them to the playoffs just fine. Maybe that’s smart, but it doesn’t make it fun for everyone else.