You know what Lincoln Riley’s been cooking this offseason? A No. 1 class in the nation in 2026, blue chips all over the board with 12 four-stars out of 27 commits. The Trojans have also secured a commitment from Husan Longstreet, a five-star quarterback who initially committed to Texas A&M, and Jahkeem Stewart, a dominant defensive lineman from Edna Karr High School in New Orleans, Louisiana. It’s looking like USC is finally locking up their own backyard. But just when you think the Trojans have this thing in control, challengers have emerged. On one hand, Ryan Day and Ohio State swoop in to steal a couple of top in-state talents right under Riley’s nose. Then there is the Oregon Ducks challenge their recruitment for another California talent—Folsom HS standout QB Ryder Lyons.

A highly coveted prospect, Ryder Lyons is a 5-star. Gatorade Player of the Year. No. 10 player in the nation. No. 4 QB in the 2026 class. And yeah, the top overall talent in the state of California. So where’s he headed? USC remains in pursuit, and insider Scott Schrader joined Josh Newberg in a new episode on On3 Recruits on May 4 to drop fresh recruiting intel on Lyons.

Newberg asked Schrader, “We’re talking about quarterback Ryder Lions. Now we’ve talked about him a lot, we know. He’s more of a 2027 recruit, but the time energy it’s been put into this recruitment by the USC coaching staff. Are we close to the finish line with Ryder Lyons?”

“I do think that USC is in a really strong spot for him as they have been for quite a while,” Schrader said. “He’s another guy that visited probably five or six times just this year… I don’t think he’s going to go past July with his recruitment.” The leaning is still there because it’s not like USC hasn’t done its part. 

Lincoln Riley has already had Ryder Lyons on campus five times. The upcoming official visit on June 20 will mark his sixth visit to Los Angeles, thanks to a familiar face in his older brother, Walker Lyons, who plays for Riley at USC. Moreover, Ryder seems to be a fan of the USC head coach already.

“Coach Riley: three first picks in the NFL draft, three Heisman winners, it’s very familiar, my brother goes there, they’ve been recruiting me for a while,” Ryder told On3 in March. “So I don’t think there’s any quarterback coach in the country, to be honest. Coach Riley knows what he’s doing.” While it seems USC might be on track to land Ryder, over in Oregon, they are not letting go of it easily.

Pete Nakos logged a prediction that the 6’2, 205-pound QB would choose USC over Oregon, another hunter. But On3’s Steve Wiltfong believes the Ducks are the favorites to land a commitment from 2026 five-star quarterback Ryder Lyons.

“My On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine expert pick had been on USC since the fall for Lyons when it looked like he was close to committing to the Trojans. Now, the intel is starting to favor Oregon. BYU looks to be second in the battle for Lyons currently. While Lyons could certainly end up with BYU, and that will be something to monitor, I’m going to move my predictions for Lyons to the Ducks,” Steve Wiltfong wrote.

The Ducks have work to do this recruiting cycle, currently sitting at No. 16 nationally after missing out on Jared Curtis and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, and losing five-star defensive tackle Kodi Greene, who flipped his commitment to Washington. So, it makes sense for them to go all in for Ryder Lyons.

Lyons is an especially appealing prospect for Oregon due to his timeline. He plans to take a one-year religious mission after graduation. That gap provides a natural progression and added spacing between him and the current quarterback room, which includes redshirt sophomores Dante Moore and Austin Novosad, redshirt freshman Luke Moga, and true freshman Akili Smith Jr.

Over the past two seasons, Lyons has passed for 6,589 yards and 84 touchdowns with only 14 interceptions. He’s also added 1,538 rushing yards and 38 touchdowns on the ground. Oregon, having a strong chance to land Ryder Lyons, will give Lincoln Riley some sleepless nights.

You know how he wanted to fix last year’s problem? 13 different states represented. Well, this year they brought in 12 players from the state of California, per 247Sports’ Cooper Petagna, the most ever under him. It’s looking like a culture shift, but he’s already nursing a couple of heartbreaks dealt by the Buckeyes. 

Lincoln Riley suffers a recruiting blow from Ohio State

This is the second time Ryan Day has stolen top talent from the state of California. On Sunday, Ohio State landed 4-star WR Kayden Dixon-Wyatt out of Mater Dei. The No. 6 WR in the 2026 class chose the Buckeyes over USC and Oregon. And this is a very big win for OSU because they already have the commitment of his HS teammate, another 5-star WR, Chris Henry Jr. That’s a No. 2 and No. 10 player in the state of California gone to the Midwest. 

And let’s be real. Why wouldn’t a receiver choose to land in Columbus? Brian Hartline’s products are elite. Talk about Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, and Jeremiah Smith, among others. An unclogged pipeline to the NFL. This blueprint surely attracted Dixon-Wyatt and Henry Jr. Now, with the latest commitment, Ohio State moves up to No. 3 from No. 6 in the national rankings.

And who knows, Ryan Day could topple USC’s rankings if they manage to lock in the commitment of another pursuit—5-star OT Jackson Cantwell, who will drop his decision on May 13. 

For now, Lincoln Riley and the Trojans might feel good about Ryder Lyons. But with Ryan Day making moves like that, it’s a reminder that the West Coast isn’t locked down yet.