Steve Sarkisian has already taken Texas to consecutive College Football Playoff appearances and turned the Longhorns into a regular national championship contender. Those accomplishments bought him plenty of goodwill in Austin. But a team that rose to No. 1 in September is now staring at a third straight loss.
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One of the SEC’s hottest teams is coming to town, and former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer has now given Steve Sarkisian a blunt reality check with a Ohio State comparison.
“If this happens at Ohio State [losing three games], gone,” Meyer stated about Ryan Day’s job. “So maybe you’re right. As Texas that could you imagine losing like that three games at Ohio State?”
For Meyer, the same standards could then be applied to the Longhorns as well. If three games like those would warrant a role being lost for Ryan Day, then perhaps the same treatment would be expected of Sarkisian as well.
“This is the most important coaching game in Steve Sarkisian’s coaching career,” Urban Meyer continued on his Triple Option podcast on October 19. “He’s had hell of a career. But this one is going to be a Rubicon. If they lose this one, you are in serious trouble.”
Interestingly, in addition to this, he also spoke about Tavien St. Clair possibly being QB1 with Julian Sayin injured in his right arm against Indiana. Clearly, he had his doubts over Ryan Day’s choice of QB1 as well.
“It’s perplexing why he’s [St. Clair] not the quarterback,” Meyer stated as per the Triple Option show on X. “…Why he didn’t jog onto the field when Sayin went down.”
His comments come as three-star prospect and true freshman Luke Fahey is being expected to take over as QB1 in Sayin’s absence.
Earlier last month in September, the Longhorns knocked off then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 in Week 2. That win was supposed to validate everything Texas spent the offseason building.
Following a 10-3 campaign in 2025 that left them outside the 12-team College Football Playoff, university brass and boosters went all-in on 2026. Texas committed $24.425 million to its football staff payroll alone, including Sarkisian’s $11 million salary.
On top of that, donors poured millions into NIL deals to land high-priced transfers like receiver Cam Coleman and running back Raleek Brown. Instead of cruising through October, Texas has fallen apart over the last two weeks.
First came the 27-24 fourth-quarter giveaway against Oklahoma in Dallas, where Arch Manning threw two late interceptions, including a pick-six.
Then came last Saturday’s 27-24 home loss to Florida, a game Texas had no business losing. The Gators showed up at Memorial Stadium having just been blown out by Missouri (45-17) and South Carolina (38-19) in back-to-back weeks.
They were also starting redshirt freshman backup Tramell Jones Jr. at quarterback for the first time in his career. Texas jumped out to a 17-3 second-quarter lead after a 63-yard Ryan Niblett punt return touchdown, and then, as Sarkisian put it afterward, the Longhorns “kind of bled out.”
A Florida defense that entered the afternoon ranked dead last in the SEC lived in the Texas backfield all day, piling up 11 tackles for loss and sacking Manning five times.
Texas finished with 272 total yards, converted just 2 of 10 third downs, and held the ball for 21 minutes and 49 seconds. Coleman was held to three catches for 18 yards, and the run game scraped together 99 rushing yards.
Florida linebacker Myles Graham ended Texas’s last-ditch drive inside two minutes by strip-sacking Manning.
Co-host Rob Stone noted that the donors who shelled out millions for these players are going to start asking where their money went, joking that another loss on Saturday might force Sarkisian’s agent to “start making some calls.”
Meyer initially pumped the brakes on the idea that Sarkisian’s job was already on the line.
“I don’t think we’re there yet,” Meyer said.
He suggested it would take Texas falling out of the rankings and the playoff race entirely for that kind of talk to get real.
Mark Ingram, the third co-host on the show, pushed right back. A third loss in mid-October would drop Texas to 4-3 and 1-3 in the SEC, effectively killing their playoff hopes before November even starts.
“If this happens at Ohio State, gone,” Meyer said. “So maybe you’re right. I mean, could you imagine losing like that three games at Ohio State? I’m trying to put it who’s equal to Texas.”
On paper, firing Sarkisian after this season would cost Texas a $36.5 million buyout. Factoring in the 85% of the remaining balance to be paid, the number could go up to around $50 million as well. That figure drops to $27.5 million after 2027. That is a massive check to write, though boosters in the SEC have paid more when a season goes sideways.
For now, Sarkisian is trying to keep the walls from closing in before Saturday night.
On Monday, he confirmed he is sticking with Manning as his starter despite reports that backup KJ Lacey Jr. has been getting extra first-team reps in practice behind an offensive line that has given up 14 sacks across games against Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Florida.
Sarkisian also defended his playcalling, telling reporters on Monday that while he still wants to be creative, “we’ve got to do ‘simple’ better as an offense.” Doing anything simple won’t be easy against Pete Golding’s No. 7 Rebels.
Ole Miss is coming off a 31-3 rout of No. 13 Missouri in which QB Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels offense rolled up nearly 500 yards. To make matters worse for Texas, star edge rusher Colin Simmons left the Florida game in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury, leaving his status up in the air for the biggest game of Sarkisian’s tenure.