Lincoln Riley’s seat at USC is getting hotter. Five seasons without a College Football Playoff appearance, losses to Oregon and Wisconsin, and a looming showdown with No. 2 Ohio State have intensified scrutiny of his future. Another defeat Saturday could make his position even harder to defend.
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And one prominent replacement candidate is already being discussed. According to CBS Sports reporter John Talty, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer would top the Trojans’ list if Riley is fired. His ties to athletic director Jen Cohen only add to the speculation.
“Listen, it’s kind of an open secret, I would say, in the industry that if USC were to make a move, that Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer would be at the top of the list,” Talty said in a clip shared by 247Sports. “Jen and Kalen had obviously previously worked together at Washington. And so that’s what I was talking about earlier with the potential dominoes. Like, things could get real wild, real fast if a couple of things go a certain way.”
DeBoer received a two-year contract extension in April, bringing his total deal to seven years and $87.5 million. The agreement keeps him at Alabama through January 2033, with an annual salary of $12.5 million. Landing him would require USC to compete financially with the Crimson Tide.
Riley is 41-20 at USC and hasn’t reached the College Football Playoff during his tenure. The Trojans lost 41-27 to Oregon on September 26 before falling 24-7 to Wisconsin last Saturday, their lowest scoring output under Riley. USC dropped out of the AP Top 25 at 6-2, and another defeat could severely damage its Big Ten title-game hopes.
USC has fired coaches midseason before. On September 13, 2021, athletic director Mike Bohn dismissed Clay Helton just two games into the season following a 42-28 loss to Stanford. Helton finished 46-24 with a Rose Bowl victory and a Pac-12 championship, yet USC moved on despite reportedly owing him more than $10 million. Bohn cited increased investments and unmet championship expectations.
Six years earlier, USC fired Steve Sarkisian on October 12, 2015, five games into the season. Athletic director Pat Haden terminated his contract, with Helton stepping in as interim coach. However, Sarkisian’s dismissal involved concerns about his conduct and personal well-being rather than performance alone.
Riley’s estimated $70 million buyout presents a much bigger financial challenge. If USC decides to replace him with DeBoer, the Alabama coach would owe his current school $10 million to leave by January 31, 2027. That fee drops to $8 million from February 1, 2027, through January 31, 2028, according to AL.com’s Matt Stahl.
If Alabama fires DeBoer without cause instead, the school would owe him 90% of his remaining contract compensation. The agreement also has no offset provision, meaning Alabama would still owe the full amount even if he accepted another coaching job. USC could reportedly offer DeBoer more than $13 million annually.
“Listen, if I didn’t want to be at this place, I wouldn’t have come here in the first place,” Riley said at his Tuesday news conference, according to Nick Bromberg of Yahoo Sports. “If I didn’t want to be at this place, I’ve had plenty of opportunities to leave. This is where I want to be. This is the right place for me. I’m the right person to be here. And that’s just as honest and transparent as I can be with you guys.”
Cohen hired DeBoer at Washington in November 2021, a day after USC hired Riley. He went 25-3 in two seasons, won the Pac-12 in 2023, and lost the national title game to Michigan, 34-13. DeBoer went 9-4 in his first season at Alabama and 11-4 last year, but the Crimson Tide have already suffered losses to Georgia and Tennessee this October.
Alabama also sits at 6-2, making DeBoer’s recent results a potential concern. If he stays in Tuscaloosa, BYU’s Kalani Sitake could emerge as another option.
Sitake turned down Penn State last year, which could make him difficult to land. However, USC’s estimated $37 million to $40 million in roster spending significantly exceeds BYU’s $20 million to $25 million, giving the Trojans a potential financial advantage.
USC faces Ohio State on Saturday, followed by Indiana on November 14, Maryland on November 21, and UCLA in its regular-season finale. Alabama has a bye week before traveling to LSU on November 7.