The offseason has not helped Bill Belichick after a disappointing 2025 season at UNC. GM Michael Lombardi was placed on paid administrative leave. Then Steve Belichick, the head coach’s son and defensive coordinator, took an indefinite medical leave earlier this month. There is at least one reason for optimism, and that is QB Billy Edwards Jr. However, according to a prominent ESPN analyst, his success will be contingent on a major factor.

“My big issue really is the front seven for Carolina. Then also their discipline. Can you stop the boneheaded penalties?” prominent analyst and former FSU All-ACC, EJ Manuel, said on ESPN’s August 20 podcast. “Can you get off the field on third down, which is really uncharacteristic for the Bill Belichick teams that I played against when I was in the NFL.”

UNC’s defense allowed opponents to convert 42% of their third downs in 2025. The Tar Heels’ own offense converted only 33% of its third downs. In the same comparison, UNC was also charged with 52 penalties for 474 yards through its first nine games. The third-down problem is especially awkward for Belichick. The front seven presents another question.

Melkart Abou-Jaoude returns after producing 10.5 sacks in 2025, but UNC lost three of its top linebackers from last season. Khmori House transferred to Arkansas, Andrew Simpson graduated, and Mikai Gabayor moved to Florida State. That leaves a much less proven linebacker group heading into the season. Still, Manuel didn’t write off Belichick’s UNC.

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“You add Billy Edwards Jr., who’s played a lot of college football,” Manuel said. “But the thing is this is his fourth stop and the big reason why is because he’s been injured pretty much throughout his entire college career. So, if he’s healthy, yeah, he can play and he can get the job done.”

UNC has rebuilt the quarterback room, added transfers across the roster and brought in a large freshman class. Edwards was eventually named the starter for the season opener against TCU after beating out Miles O’Neill and freshman Travis Burgess. Edwards brings considerably more experience than the quarterbacks Belichick had available last year.

Nobody expected Belichick to turn UNC into a national powerhouse overnight. But 4-8 was a rough starting point, especially for a head coach with six Super Bowls. Now the excuses get thinner. The roster is more experienced. Edwards gives the offense a proven college quarterback. Petrino is running the offense. Belichick has had another recruiting cycle and another offseason to install his standards.

The Tar Heels open against TCU on August 29. The same matchup produced a 48-14 TCU win last September, after UNC led 7-0 early and then gave up 41 straight points. Of course, this time people would expect the result to be opposite.