Last season, Texas’s playoff chances took a beating in Week 1, when they lost to Ohio State. The Longhorns didn’t help themselves with losses against Florida and Georgia. Steve Sarkisian will again play the Buckeyes next season. And with the conference schedule getting a new look, the Texas head coach is wondering whether the strength of schedule will be considered this time.

“I looked at our schedule. I think we’re playing eight or nine preseason top 25 teams. And it really went to last year, where we played five top 10-ranked teams in the regular season,” Steve Sarkisian said on the Triple Option podcast on June 17. “We won three of those games. We were the first team to do that since LSU in 2019 with Joe Burrow. We’re playing Ohio State out of conference. And so those games get challenging.”

The Longhorns are not only playing Ohio State, but they are also entering a new era where the SEC has expanded from eight conference games to nine starting in 2026. That means one fewer opportunity to schedule an easier opponent and one additional game against an SEC rival. The change was designed to create better matchups, but it also increases the chances of accumulating another loss. Especially when Texas has OSU on its non-conference slate.

“This year in the SEC, we added a ninth conference game, and we’re playing Ohio State again. And so, my concern is how the CFP committee is going to acknowledge that and acknowledge the schedules that people are playing,” Steve Sarkisian added. “Where do nine and three fit? Because for two years now, no nine-and-three team has made the college football playoff. 10 and two is kind of that Mendoza line.”

Texas has chosen the hardest paths, scheduling Ohio State and Michigan while navigating a grueling SEC slate. On top of that, the team’s schedule strength (9th in 2025) has always been in step with the nation’s top programs, rather than teams trying to build records against weaker competition.

However, in a 12-team playoff, it’s hard for the committee to consider three-loss teams. Moreover, Texas is competing with two-loss teams from its own conference. On the other hand, Texas Tech made the playoffs with a one-loss record.

Steve Sarkisian takes a shot at Texas Tech, relaying scheduling inequity

Ever since the 12-team playoff era began, the CFP committee has shown reluctance to include 9-win teams in the bracket, despite their higher strength-of-schedule rankings. Last year, for instance, Texas was a 9-win team, and Texas Tech had 11 wins. At the same time, though, the Red Raiders had the 46th toughest schedule in the country, far behind Texas. According to Sarkisian, his team was miles better than his in-state rival.

“There’s a team in our state that plays in another conference that has a schedule that I would argue if I played with our twos and our threes, we could go undefeated,” Sarkisian said at the Touchdown Club in Houston last month. “And they’ll probably make the CFP this year.” Sark later clarified his comments, saying that he was pointing towards the “inequities” in college football, but the damage was done.

Ohio State, in comparison, has found little problem in navigating its non-conference slate. For starters, in 2022, the team had Notre Dame, and Ryan Day defeated them 21-10, making it to the playoffs. Even in 2023, they had Notre Dame on their schedule, and they defeated the Fighting Irish again, 17-14. Most recently, it was Texas, and again, Ryan Day had little trouble navigating it.

Texas has reportedly invested more than $45 million in its roster and can’t afford to miss the playoffs for a second year in a row. Defeating OSU will be crucial, along with navigating tough SEC opponents like Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, and Missouri.