We know for a fact that Ohio State is set to “overmatch” Penn State this weekend. But before anyone celebrates too soon, it’s worth remembering that this time, the match-up is personal. What was once a championship partnership has now turned into a quiet rivalry between Ryan Day and former Buckeyes defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Knowles’ struggles this season are a far cry from his success in Columbus, where his 2024 defense ranked first nationally in scoring and total defense. But at Penn State, his system hasn’t translated. And now, his old team is poised to expose those weaknesses.

On the October 28 episode of The Ruffino & Joe Show, analyst Joe DeLeone was extremely honest about where Penn State stands heading into this matchup. “This feels like a complete overmatch. We’re talking about a team that is a little bit of a dead body right now, that is just trying to stay afloat…. I do not see a world where Ohio State does not cover that 20 and a half point spread on FanDuel.” And yet, Ryan Day isn’t easing up. The Buckeyes’ head coach knows what complacency can cost, especially against a team with “nothing to lose.” “We have to be on high alert at all times,” Day warned. “Expect the unexpected.”

Joe’s co-host, Blake Ruffino, warns them about the same: “Well, the biggest weakness defensively for Penn State is the biggest weakness for Ohio State. They can’t really stop the run right now. It’s not really all on them.” Once known for his aggressive, disciplined schemes, Knowles’ unit now ranks 90th nationally in rushing defense, giving up 159 yards per game. Against Iowa last week, they surrendered 245 rushing yards and three touchdowns, their third game in five allowing over 175 yards on the ground. Even Penn State linebacker Dom DeLuca admitted, “We’ve got to improve….We have to make that stop at the end of the game and get the offense the ball back.”

Day, for his part, isn’t letting the opponent’s weakness cloud his focus. He emphasized fundamentals and discipline above all. “He’ll have his curveballs,” Day said of Knowles’ game plan. “He always does. We have to identify those early and respond. These matchups with Penn State are always battles, and this one will be no different.”

Another thing that can still push Penn State’s fate is Ohio State’s run game, which has been a problem for them. As they rank very low at 108th in how effective their runs are, rarely making big plays, and they are also 134th in the country for explosive runs. They were just 3.5 yards per carry against Rutgers. And the list doesn’t stop there.

One factor that still worries Ryan Day

Penn State is entering its game against Ohio State with a “nothing to lose” mentality. After starting off as the no. The 2-ranked team, Penn State, fell off the charts, losing against teams like UCLA and Northwestern. Then, after parting ways with James Franklin, the championship hopes are already dead. But for Ohio State, this game is the push to their playoff hopes after going undefeated for 8 weeks. That’s exactly why Ryan Day is not ready to take any chances.

Knowing the fact that Penn State still has a strong set of players, underestimating them is not an option. “It hasn’t gone the way they wanted to,” Day said, “but it doesn’t change that they have very good players. When you looked at this game a few months ago, it was an absolute matchup game. That has not changed. It’s still the same players, other than the quarterback. Our guys know that, and they understand that.” No other opponents that the Bucks faced have better talent on paper than the Nittany Lions.

As per CBS Sports reports, Penn State started off the season with the 10th highest ratio of blue-chip prospects among all 136 teams in FBS, as 68% of their players were four- or five-star prospects. Even if Drew Allar is out for the season because of his broken left ankle, the rest of the squad boosts talent.

This Saturday at Ohio Stadium, the reunion is going to be surgical.