Texas Tech’s playoff dreams seem closer than ever. Placed No. 5 in the last rankings, they have a good shot at making it to the postseason. However, week 13 brought along its fluctuations. Texas Tech did not lose. Despite that, a marquee win by a rival Big 10 program has put the Red Raiders in an alarming situation.

On Saturday, Texas Tech defeated UCF in a dominant 48-9 win. However, at Autzen Stadium, Oregon’s clash against the USC Trojans held major playoff implications, with CFB analyst Joel Klatt calling it a de facto playoff game, as two top-ranked programs faced off against each other. He had predicted No. 7 Oregon to win, strengthening their playoff chances. And they did. So, with a strong Big Ten win against the Trojans, the Ducks might climb higher than McGuire’s program in the upcoming CFP rankings.

“I think Oregon should be easily the six seed, maybe higher. I expect them to jump Ole Miss in the CFP this week,” Joel Klatt predicts on his show. “So, will they also jump Texas Tech? I’m not sure. I think that they should. They probably should. Oregon has a better strength of schedule. They’ve got a better strength of record. The FPI is better than Texas Tech. So, if you’re looking at advanced metrics, it’s right there.”

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According to ESPN’s FPI, the Red Raiders are ranked No. 56 in strength of schedule, while Oregon is 24. Similarly, the Ducks rank better in the strength of record at 5 as compared to Texas Tech’s 10.

If we compare Texas Tech’s and Oregon’s 2025 seasons, both programs have one loss so far. Wins against the BYU Cougars and Utah mattered, but the loss to Kenny Dillingham’s program proved costly for Texas Tech. The Ducks lost as well, but to the Indiana Hoosiers, a program that has already put a foot in the playoffs. And that makes all the difference.

“I still think that the loss, even though it’s at home for Oregon, is better to Indiana, who’s the number two team in the country, rather than on the road against Arizona State for Texas Tech,” added Joel Klatt.

Texas Tech’s road to the playoffs

Even before the season started, Joey McGuire had playoffs on his mind. However, he wasn’t discussing his team but the alleged conference bias in the CFP. Last year, several SEC teams were up in arms over the committee selecting an ACC team over them. The dominance of the SEC and the Big 10 has meant that the Big 12 is rarely in the discussion.

“I think you’ve got to earn it on the field, and if you’re a conference champion, you should be in,” McGuire said on SiriusXM College Sports Radio.

Eight months later, Joey McGuire’s program has certainly earned it. His program sits at the cusp of the conference championship game, and it looks like even a loss may get them in. ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote, “Dominant wins at Utah and against BYU have elevated Texas Tech in the ranking, and the committee has also been impressed with the Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front.”

According to PFSN’s College FPM model, Texas Tech has an 84.8% chance of making it to the postseason. If the Red Raiders succeed in beating West Virginia in the regular season finale and then win the Big 12 championship game, it would be the first time Texas Tech would relish the playoff cake.