For Ohio State’s top safety prospect, a devastating setback has arrived at the worst possible moment: just weeks before the NFL Draft. After pushing the Bucks’ defense to No. 1 for weeks, he was all set to make a strong transition from college to pro football. Initially expected as a decision on his end, it is now coming out that it was actually an unfortunate injury that kept him from performing at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Just a month ahead of the 2026 NFL draft, Caleb Downs has suffered a partially torn meniscus and a potentially degenerative ACL. Reporter Cory Kinnan shared an injury update on Downs after speaking with an NFL scout and also tried to make it clear that it will not affect his draft stock.

“Now, this is not to signify any sort of significant drop for Downs, who likely will return and get a second opinion and a second check,” Kinnan said. “Besides, plenty of NFL players have been flagged with degenerative knees before but have gone on to have successful NFL careers.”

Kinnan’s point isn’t without precedent. Front offices have a history of betting on talent despite combine injuries, as seen with tight end Tyler Higbee in 2016 and running back Devontae Booker, who both went on to have productive NFL careers after being flagged for knee issues.

Front offices also view knee injuries differently today than a decade ago. Advances in cartilage repair that involves trimming of the meniscus, or even ACL management are rarely a career death knell. Evaluators are increasingly willing to stash elite, blue-chip talent on the PUP list early if it secures a decade-long anchor for their secondary.

Plus, with offseason time and the draft process, Downs will have plenty of time to recover. Teams like the Cincinnati Bengals are pretty high on him, and his addition will impact their defense immediately. Fortunately, missing spring minicamps shouldn’t stop his mental transition.

Downs spent his college career quarterbacking complex, pro-style schemes, first at Alabama, then at Columbus. NFL scouts know he can absorb a new playbook from the rehab room and still hit the ground running without a lot of time spent at training camp. On top of that, their director of player personnel at the Bengals, Duke Tobin, already speaks highly of drafting good safeties.

“Depends on who you are,” Tobin said. “I can name difference makers at every position. If you can find a difference-maker, it doesn’t matter what the position is behind his name. There’s definitely been difference-making safeties.”

Then, in Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft, Caleb Downs is set to go second overall to the New York Jets. This is the highest draft slot for a safety since Eric Turner went No. 2 in 1991. His ability to read the offense well, his quickness, and physicality make him a perfect fit for the Jets.

The Jets didn’t record a single interception last season. They also allowed 29.6 points per game in the 2025 NFL regular season, ranking 31st in the league. Only the Cowboys allowed more points per game than they did. On top of that, Jets safety Andre Cisco is going to become a free agent, so the addition of Downs could be a major advantage for them.

But despite the optimism, there is ample reason to also have caution when it comes to taking players in the draft with medical issues. Perhaps the most famous modern example is running back Marcus Lattimore. He was a superstar at South Carolina before suffering a gruesome injury in 2012 where he dislocated his knee and tore every ligament. The San Francisco 49ers drafted him in the 4th round of 2013 with the intent to “redshirt” him for a year of rehab. Despite intense effort, his knee never recovered. He retired in 2014 at age 23 without ever playing a regular-season NFL snap.

A more recent case is that of Caleb Farley. He was drafted 22nd overall in 2021 by the Titans despite having back surgery just before the draft. His career has been a “never-ending cycle” of medical setbacks, including a torn ACL in his rookie year and recurring nerve issues in his back that affected the strength in his legs. By August 2024, the Titans waived him after he had appeared in just 12 games over three seasons.

So it is possible that Caleb’s injury could drop him down some picks and affect his only chance to earn $46.6 million. This $46.6 million figure isn’t just a shiny number. It’s the projected, fully guaranteed contract for the No.2 overall pick. Under the NFL’s strict rookie wage scale, even a slight slide down the board can cost a player massively. Slipping to just No. 10 drops that guarantee by nearly $20 million, making his medical re-checks a high-stakes waiting game.

So, is it worth taking a risk with Caleb Downs?

Why NFL teams should bet on the Ohio State standout?

Even though teams consider the quarterback position more valuable than defensive backs or secondary, the reality is far from it. Seattle Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon almost earned Super Bowl LX MVP against the Patriots after making 4 solo tackles, a sack, and a tackle for loss with a forced fumble, a pass breakup, and a strip sack, which led to a pick-six.

That exceptional performance forced teams to study the Seahawks’ defense under coach Mike Macdonald. This shows how defensive players can also change the dynamics of the game.

Then there is the gold standard in the Hall of Famer, Ed Reed. He is the greatest safety in NFL history, and was the premier “ball hawk” of his era. A 9-time Pro Bowler, 8-time All-Pro, and 2004 Defensive Player of the Year, Reed also had 64 career interceptions. He also holds the NFL record for all-time interception return yards at 1,590. He was known for baiting even elite quarterbacks, such as Peyton Manning, into throwing picks. Bill Belichick once described him as the best free safety he ever coached against.

Caleb Downs is no Ed Reed. But the OSU star still shows elite football IQ and versatility while covering receivers across the field, breaking up passes, and making tackles in open spaces.

His collegiate career showcases his game-changing ability, where he wasn’t just a ballhawk (with 6 interceptions) but a force in the run game, racking up 22 run stops and 18 tackles for loss. In 2022, he led the SEC and recorded 107 tackles as a freshman. Those numbers clearly represent how he can change the game despite being in a safety position.